Will Muslims Ever Outnumber Hindus In India

The Economic Advisory Council to the PM (EAC-PM) Report declared in the middle of the election how much the Muslim population had increased with a corresponding decrease in Hindu population’s share in the total population figures since Independence.

What did the EAC-PM Report say?

It stated that the “share” of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82% between 1950 and 2015 from 84.1 % to 78.06% while the share of Muslim Population which was 9.84% increased to 14.09% in 2015.

Outlandishly it has been stated that Muslims’ “share in the population” has increased by 43% since independence, while that of Christians of 5.38% and of Sikhs of 6.58%. Remember again it is the “share in the population increase” that is being talked about and not the population increase or how much more the majority community has increased in terms of total population numbers in comparison to the minorities.

What the Report does not address

The report has not really tackled the issue of how much the difference in population of Hindus and Muslims has been since independence to the present times. Let us refer to the table below:

From the above table, it is quite clear that percentages don’t really tell the full story. What we need to focus on is not shares of population growth, and we will come to it in a bit, but the increase in total difference of populations. Now, in 1951 the Hindu population was more than Muslim population by 26.9 crores. In 2011, this number was 79.4 crores. There is actually a 300% jump in Hindus being more than Muslims in India since independence.  That means that the gap in Hindus being more than Muslims has only increased- that too by 300%.

Further projections based on the birth rates and total fertility rates indicate that till 2050 this  gap is only going to widen. This gap will by 2050 widen to 98.73 crore. This is a significant increase of about 367.2 % since independence in the difference between the two populations – Hindus being 367.2% more than Muslims.

According to data from the National Family Health Survey in India, the fertility rate has declined across all religious groups. Although Muslims still have the highest fertility rate, it has dropped significantly from 4.4 children per woman in 1992 to 2.6 children in 2015. The trend suggests that the total fertility rate (TFR) for Muslims stood at 2.4 in 2019, indicating a constant decline in population growth.

The NFHS data reveals that the total fertility rates among Muslim women have experienced the sharpest decline over the three decades following 1992. Specifically, the TFR for Hindu women has decreased by 1.36, while for Muslim women, it has decreased by a larger margin of 2.05. (1)

The Mathematical Question

To predict the population growth 2 models are used. The first one is the exponential model of population growth which assumes that the population grows at a constant rate over time which means that the population increases by the same percentage every year or time-period. The second is the polynomial model of population growth assumes that the growth rate changes over time, rather than remaining constant. This means that the population may grow slowly at first, then faster, and then slower again,

The question mathematically is then if the difference in population keeps increasing and that TFRs of both Muslims and Hindus will eventually converge due to such drastic decline in population growth, how can Muslim population EVER go past Hindus in India.  An analysis using different growth rates demonstrates that the prospect of Indian Muslims becoming the largest community is impossible.

A. Exponential growth rate

Even if we assume the continuation of the population growth rate pattern observed between 2001-2011, which has been used to suggest that Hindus are lagging behind, the idea remains far-fetched. Population growth is typically calculated using an exponential growth rate.

During 2001-2011, the annual growth rate for Hindus was 1.55%, while for Muslims, it was 2.2%. In 1991-200, the respective annual growth rates were 1.8% for Hindus and 2.6% for Muslims. If this declining trend in growth rates persists, with both communities continuing to grow at slower rates, the Hindu and Muslim populations are projected to reach their peak in 2061. At that time, the Muslim population is expected to number 29.24 crore, while the Hindu population is projected to be 140.25 crore. This difference will be about 111 crores, i.e 111 crores more Hindus than Muslims.

Consequently, India’s overall population in 2061 is projected to be 173.03 crore, with the Muslim proportion accounting for 16.89%, and the Hindu population constituting 81.06% of the total population. (2)

B. Polynomial Growth Rate

This model, developed by Dinesh Singh, Ajay Kumar (esteemed academics), shows the Muslim population in India can never exceed the Hindu population. The model demonstrates the population growth curves for the two communities will continue diverging (will never meet), with Hindus consistently outnumbering Muslims.

Researchers developed a mathematical model using polynomial growth rates fitted to population data. This model is considered to better than the exponential model as it takes in factors such as historical data, biological and social factors, economic and environmental conditions, socio-political influences, which helps create a more accurate model with reliable predictions.
This model uses two population growth curves for Hindus and Muslims. However, these two curves never intersect or cross paths, indicating the Hindu and Muslim populations will continue diverging and won’t come together as displayed in Figure (III).

The polynomial growth model shows that the population of Hindus, which was 30.36 crore in 1951, was projected to increase to 115.9 crore in 2021 whereas the population of Muslims from 3.58 crore in 1951 was projected to increase to 21.3 crore in 2021. In reality, the Muslim population growth in India was even lower than projected by the models discussed earlier. In a reply to the Lok Sabha, the then Minority Affairs Minister Smriti Irani stated that the approximate Muslim population in India in the year 2023 was 19.7 cr. (3) This is even less than what the Pew Research centre had predicted for the year 2021, which stood at 21 cr.

According to the mathematical model, the population growth curves of the Hindu and Muslim communities in India can never intersect or meet. This implies that the Muslim population can never surpass or exceed the Hindu population based on the projected growth patterns.

The exponential growth model [II] projects a significantly higher percentage increase in the Hindu and Muslim populations compared to the polynomial growth model [III]. However, such rapid population growth is unlikely in reality due to the declining population growth rates resulting from the successful implementation of family planning programs.

The polynomial model can thus be considered a better alternative over exponential growth here.

So, by using data from both the models [II] and [III]. We can conclude from this research that the Hindu and Muslim populations converging or even coming close to each other is a near impossibility.

References:

1. TNN / Updated: May 8, 2022. “Total Fertility Rate down across All Communities: India News – Times of India.” The Times of India, TOI, timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/total-fertility-rate-down-across-all-communities/articleshow/91407169.cms. Accessed 13 June 2024.
2. Mampatta, Sachin. “Four out of Five Indians Will Still Be Hindu Even When Muslim Population Peaks.” Mint, 13 June 2018, www.livemint.com/Opinion/5bsICkXvl4t4hXSewk8bkN/Four-out-of-five-Indians-will-still-be-Hindu-evenwhen-Musli.html. Accessed 13 June 2024
3. PTI. “Projected Population of Muslims in 2023 to Stand at 19.75 Crore: Govt in Lok Sabha.” The Hindu, 21 July 2023, www.thehindu.com/news/national/projected-population-of-muslims-in-2023-to-stand-at-1975-crore-govt-in-lok-sabha/article67106178.ece. Accessed 13 June 2024.