Trade and Tech battles, propaganda and the threat of Cyber War are building tensions between two global superpowers. So are China and the US entering a new cold war?
The cold war between the US and the Soviet Union was driven by a contest of capitalism versus communism, the two countries fought by backing opposing sides in proxy wars around the World and there was a constant threat of a possible nuclear war. China and the US are not getting on right now, America can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between the countries. They have targeted each other using propaganda about the origins of the Coronavirus pandemic and recently, the Trade War. This new cold war is also less about nuclear fears and more about a cyber war. Spying is at the heart of the cold war and now it is happening online carried out by an army of hackers. Both the US and China have accused each other of hacking into government, military or business networks. The US also fears that Chinese tech could be used for spying but, is China really as big a rival as Soviet Russia was? China’s finances and tech are more linked with western systems than the Soviets’ were so decoupling these could hit economies on both sides. China’s military power is weaker than the US’s but it is growing and its navy has overtaken the US. Two regions could raise the heat in this battle: the US is building ties with Taiwan but China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be part of the country again. Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait aren’t exactly calm waters. US ships have been transiting the strait monthly, angering Beijing. China sent nearly 150 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense zone forcing Taiwan’s fighter jets to scramble with Taiwan, caught in a kind of tug of war between the US and China. The United States has made clear to China that it would defend Taiwan if Chinese attack is unprovoked and on the flip side it’s made clear to Taiwan that it will not come to Taiwan’s aid if the Chinese attack is provoked so that’s the big picture if things spin out of control we could potentially be talking about a war between the US and China. When it comes to semiconductor technology, the tiny chips that the world has come to rely on, they’re in everything from smartphones to aircraft as far as the smallest and most advanced ships go. Around 90 percent of them are made in Taiwan, this actually is a capability that China is aspiring to and so then there’s this very important question of what would happen if China controlled that production. The other big thing about Taiwan is that it acts as a kind of lightning rod for the big political rivalry between the US and China and how they see themselves and each other. China is also laying historical claims to the South China Sea but this is disputed by many countries and its strategic position as a global trade route makes this a flash point if this new type of cold war escalates.
This Cold War could impact the cost of our goods by disrupting the global supply chain and countries may be forced to take sides. Nobody is certain what China or the US want the end game to be but if this calculated cold war escalates into a very real hot war what will either side really achieve?