The 2024 Kerala Lok Sabha election is crucial for the CPI. In most of the seats where it contests from Kerala, its opponents are political heavyweights ranging from Congress’s Rahul Gandhi and Shashi Tharoor to BJP’s Suresh Gopi. In the past two Lok Sabha elections, it has only been able to win one seat. The party is hoping to improve their tally this time, but most of its seats will witness high-voltage fights.
CPI in Kerala is part of the Left Democratic Front that has been ruling Kerala since 2016. During LS polls, the party contests in four Lok Sabha seats namely Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Mavelikara, Wayanad. Of these, the party actually hopes to win in only two seats, that is Mavelikara and Thrissur.In Thiruvananthapuram, the battle is between Shashi Tharoor and BJP. In Wayanad, if Rahul Gandhi contests again, it will be an easy walkover for the Congress. In Thrissur, the most probable candidate for CPI is VS Sunil Kumar.
Even though the CPI candidates won here before, this time the candidature of actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi has made a dent in the prospects of both LDF and UDF. In this scenario, Mavelikara became the most winnable seat for CPI. Some surveys by Malayalam news channels are predicting the loss of INC’s Kodikkunnil Suresh MP, who has been the incumbent since 2009.
One suggestion put forward by the CPI to the CPM to make mutual gains in Lok Sabha Polls is to swap between the Trivandrum and Kollam Parliament seats. In previous elections from LDF, the CPI contested from Thiruvananthapuram and CPM from Kollam. The CPI leaders are of the view that if a strong CPI leader is fielded from Kollam against the incumbent MP N.K Premachandran, he can be defeated.
Since 2009 UDF alliance has been winning Kollam even though, when coming to assembly polls the LDF wins most of the seats under the parliamentary constituency. The CPI is confident that they can win the seat for the alliance if the proposal is agreed upon. But the possibility of CPM agreeing to this proposal may be very low since in Thiruvananthapuram seat, in the past two Lok Sabha polls the LDF finished third.
A win of two or more seats is a must for the CPI in Kerala to ensure its presence in Lok Sabha as its winning prospective outside the state is comparatively low. So there are not many options for the communist party before the polls. It must concentrate on the seats where it has the highest probability of winning, other than pinning their hopes to win in seats like Thiruvananthapuram and Wayanad. If the party fails to understand the current political scenario, there is a high chance that the party may once again draw a blank from Kerala.