After the Karnataka setback, PM Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party has made a stunning comeback by clinching three crucial heartland states. Congress failed to defend power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the latter for a bigger surprise, and was routed by the ruling BJP in Madhya Pradesh. While the results are distressing for the opposition, and the INDIA bloc is facing fresh turbulence, the road for 2024 appears smoother for the BJP.
The Madhya magnificence
On 30th November evening when exit polls dropped their numbers, that of Madhya Pradesh took many by surprise and skepticism. However, by close to mid-day on December 3, reality turned out gloomier for the grand old party than what was predicted.
The BJP cruised to a two-thirds majority in the central state, winning as many as 163 of the 230 seats of the assembly, leaving the Congress a distant second at 66. Its second-best performance ensures virtually a fifth successive term in the state.
Outcomes showed Congress trails behind BJP in all the five sub-regions of Madhya Pradesh – Bundelkhand, Chambal, Vindhya Pradesh, Mahakaushal, and Malwa. The saffron party made gains in all the five as the Congress failed to hold on to seats it had won in 2018.
Malwa and Chambal, the two major contributors to Congress tally in 2018, sided lock, stock, and barrel with the BJP. It snatched 25 seats in Malwa and 10 in Chambal from the Congress.
Not only has BJP been able to beat the much-hyped anti-incumbency factor, but it swelled its vote share to 48.55%, its highest ever. This has propelled the saffron party’s presence in the state to hegemonic levels.
The Madhya mold
Since its formation in 1956, Congress had governed Madhya Pradesh almost uninterrupted till 2003. The state has largely remained insulated from caste politics. Even during the 1990s, when the Mandal movement swept other Hindi-speaking states, MP emerged untouched.
A possible explanation to that lies in the fact that unlike UP or Bihar, no backward caste group in MP boasts of a substantial population even though OBCs as an aggregate consist 40% of the state’s population.
Rahul Gandhi’s frequent invocation of caste census during the campaign had little to no traction amongst the electorate here. Pradesh Congress always knew it and therefore never overplayed it throughout the campaign.
In addition, the DNA of the state makes it harder for a single narrative to sway the entire state. The various regions (as mentioned above) are vastly different political units, but yet together. Commenting on the heterogeneity of Madhya Pradesh, political scientist Wayne Wilcox said, “no state in India has fewer bonds underlying its unity”.
However, for the last 20 years the state and its politics have been uniformly witness to a phenomenon called BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). With a nearly unbroken 20-year reign, the BJP’s success in recent Lok Sabha and assembly elections underscores its formidable presence in the state. When the party was dethroned from Delhi in 2004, even then it had emerged victorious on 25 of the state’s 29 parliamentary seats.
The Madhya moment
The shattering loss in 2003 had put the MP Congress on a downward pedestal. Senior TV Journalist Brajesh Rajput in his book on 2018 assembly elections Chunav Hai Badlav Ka writes in Hindi “last 15 years has been a story of devastation for Congress in Madhya Pradesh. After losing power in 2003, a well-oiled Congress organisation gradually became invisible and ineffective.”
While that of BJP grew stronger and stronger, building on the historical base that its ideological parent RSS had maintained.
In fact, soon after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls RSS had decided to relocate their headquarters from Nagpur to Madhya Pradesh. The location chosen in MP was Malwa, the most important region in terms of seat.
However, it has more to do with history. Currently the local RSS office named Archana in Rambagh in Malwa has a story that gives a glimpse into how old is the history between RSS and MP.
In 1943, then RSS Sarsanghchalak Madhavrao Golwalkar wanted to visit Indore for a public meeting. However, the British Raj had a rule for the region that permitted only those possessing property there could conduct such meetings. Then, the settler of Rambagh colony Purushottam Kibe transferred his akhada land to Golwalkar. Since then the Archana office has been at the centre of Sangh’s activities.
The new swanky office in the region, which is approaching its completion deadline, is reflective of RSS-BJP organisational strength and the importance it accords to the state.
In 2020, RSS sources told TOI that “…being in the central part of the country, Madhya Bharat region assumes more significance in view of planning, reviewing of works and political mobilisation of saffron affiliates.”
States being eyed here are MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In 2014, BJP had won 159, and, in 2019, 149 out of 171 seats in the region. Even in 2009, the party had won most seats from these five states.
At a time when it was set to shift its base to MP in view of changing political scenario, a massive win in the assembly elections is a huge shot in the arm for RSS.
Don’t read much into 2018, when BJP fell short by a whisker. Mandsaur firing and upper caste resentment over centre’s ordinance overturning the apex court’s order on SC/ST Act are what kept BJP away from power for a short while. This was similar to Gujarat assembly elections 2017 when Congress gave BJP a scare. But in 2021, BJP was again given a resounding welcome in its bastion.
Bastion is where ‘fatigue factor’ and ‘anti-incumbency’ takes a back seat. Thus, in hindsight, 2017 and 2018 were flukes. If Gujarat is a traditional home of the BJP, after the 2023 polls Madhya Pradesh is the new bastion of the saffron.