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How Caste Census Can Reshape the Political Landscape of Uttar Pradesh

The demand for a caste census in Uttar Pradesh gains significance in the wake of the groundbreaking Bihar caste-based survey, marking the first initiative of its kind since India’s independence in 1947, after the last caste census dates back to 1931. 

While Bihar’s findings reveal that OBCs (64%), SCs and STs (21%) together constitute a substantial 84% of the population, Uttar Pradesh’s caste demographics remain elusive, potentially obscuring critical socio-political realities and hindering targeted policymaking for social justice.

In a parallel vein to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh boasts a substantial population of backward classes. The forthcoming Union elections hold great significance for Backward groups in their pursuit of equitable representation. The growing demand for a caste census has the potential to reshape the political landscape. While Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has firmly stated that the state government has no plans for a caste census, opposition parties like the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Congress, along with smaller BJP allies, continue to push for it.

“If Bihar can have a caste census, why can’t we? Our party had promised that if voted to power, we will complete the caste census within three months,” said former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav during the budget session.

A 2020 report on elementary education in Uttar Pradesh, utilising NSSO data, highlights a direct link between caste and class at the extreme ends of the caste spectrum. Specifically, the connection between upper-caste and upper-caste significantly enhances enrollment rates, while the association between lower-caste and lower-class backgrounds has an adverse impact.

Uttar Pradesh Demographics: Population and Caste

With a population of nearly 20 crores and an average population density of 829 persons per square kilometre as of the 2011 census, Uttar Pradesh holds a pivotal place in the nation’s political landscape.

Yet, the Indian government has not publicly released caste-specific data from the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) of 2011, but as per certain estimations, OBCs make up over 50% of the state’s total population, based on data from the Hukum Singh committee in 2001. Key OBC groups include Yadavs (19.40%), Kurmis, and Patels, each at 7.4%, and several others like Nishads, Mallahs, Kevats each at 4.8%; Bhars, Rajbhars each at 2.4% Lodhs (4.8%), and Jats (3.6%). The absence of comprehensive data not only obscures sociopolitical realities but hinders targeted and informed policymaking for social justice.

The demand for a caste census in Uttar Pradesh is deeply rooted in the recognition of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who have historically faced socio-economic disadvantage. While Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) are already enumerated, a caste census could pave the way for a more comprehensive understanding of OBCs’ distribution and status in society. Furthermore, it holds the potential to pave the way for the enumeration of marginalised groups, such as Dalit Christians and Muslims, estimated to be 3.2 million in India. These communities have long been deprived of the constitutional benefits accorded to the Scheduled Castes (SC) category.

Religion vs. Caste in Politics

In the complex world of Indian politics, religion and caste often intertwine, presenting an intricate web of alliances and voting patterns. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite its slogan of ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’ (Together with all, development for all), relies heavily on Hindu upper-caste and OBC votes in Uttar Pradesh for electoral gains. Hindu upper castes have maintained a significant share of seats in the state assembly since 2002, creating a disparity between the caste-wise voting pattern and political representation. Religion has often preceded caste, especially for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In 2016, the BJP government’s selective release of religion-wise 2011 census population data just before the Bihar elections, while withholding the caste data for over a decade, exposed BJP’s politics.

However, the BJP’s opposition to the recent Bihar Caste Census, branding it as divisive, has led to political turmoil. The demand for a caste-based census in Uttar Pradesh has exposed fissures in the party’s stance, with senior BJP’s OBC face Keshav Prasad Maurya initially supporting the caste survey but later backtracking. Experts suggest that caste census has the potential to substantially weaken the BJP’s politics of religious majoritarianism in the Northern belt of India. It would allow political outfits to dent the assertion that all castes are equal in the Hindutva vision of a Hindu nation.

The Mandal Commission, established in 1979, sought to identify socially and educationally backward classes in India, eventually leading to a 27% reservation for Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in public employment and promotions. However, this reservation did not uniformly benefit all OBC communities. Rohini Commission has found that of the approximately 6,000 castes and communities classified as OBCs, only 40 received a significant share of reservation benefits for central educational institutions and civil services. This inequality highlighted the need for a more nuanced approach and insights to address the diverse challenges faced by various OBC groups.

The Call for a Caste Census: Mandal 2.0?

The demand for a caste census is not merely a rekindling of Mandal politics but a response to the evolving social and political realities of contemporary India. It signifies a need to address the economic, educational, and occupational diversity within caste groups in Uttar Pradesh. While Mandal politics had its moment in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the current context presents new challenges and opportunities. Changes in land ownership patterns, educational mobility, and occupational diversification among caste groups in Uttar Pradesh are reshaping state politics.

The BJP, which earlier accommodated the caste survey, is now apprehensive about its implications, suggesting the potential to reshape the political landscape. It is apprehensive that it may weaken the party’s hold on traditional Hindu votes, potentially fracturing the voter base.

The demand for a caste census has thrown a spanner into the works of BJP politics in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP’s fate is hanging like a pendulum, oscillating between opposing or supporting the caste census. The caste census has the potential to expose the BJP’s illusion of homogenous development bogey, revealing the unique realities of each caste group. This could reshape the BJP’s nationalistic politics, creating new challenges for unifying all marginalised votes behind BJP. 

While it could influence strategies, policies, and manifesto promises of political parties, opposition parties must also think beyond a mere census demand. To make this a full-fledged movement against the BJP, they need to address issues like expanding reservation ceiling, population proportion representation and sub-reservations for most backward caste groups, creating a holistic political discourse on social justice.

Apart from politics, the call for a caste census in Uttar Pradesh is more than a political manoeuvre; it calls for social justice and equity. As the debate unfolds, one thing is clear: the caste census is not just about numbers; it is about bringing to the forefront the struggles and aspirations of millions who have long been marginalised, especially in the case of Uttar Pradesh. In an era of data-driven decision-making, comprehensive data on caste demographics can empower communities to hold government accountable beyond election cycles and become better negotiators for their respective communities.

This story has been written as part of the My City Writers’ Training Program.

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