Is Russia-Ukraine War Never-Ending?

Sargam Parashar

2 years ago

In the initial days of the Russia-Ukraine war, no one thought that Russia’s aggression would escalate to this extent that it would leave 9,083 civilian dead and 15,779 people injured (the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights verified the number as of June 18, 2023), and persist the war for over 480 days now.

Where Moscow seems determined to invade and attack the Ukrainian lands and restricting it from joining the NATO and the EU, Kyiv continues to launch counteroffensive against the enemy’s forces with all the diplomatic and military support mainly from the NATO, the US, the UK and the EU.

Considering the latest developments, the war continues with no end in sight. It is difficult to say whether peace and agreement will be settled between the two countries in the near future.

Current Scenario

War

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently said that Ukrain forces were destroying Russian forces in the two main areas of the conflict in the east and south of Ukraine.

Russia has launched massive air attacks on Kyiv and cities from east to west on June 20, 2023. Ukraine’s air defence systems shot down 28 out of 30 Iranian-made Shahed drones that Russia launched.

Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Ukraine planned to strike Crimea with long-range HIMARS artillery and Storm Shadow missiles and warned that Moscow would retaliate if that happened.

Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Ukraine’s Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets said the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam caused 1.2 billion euros ($1.3bn) of damage and warned that mines unearthed by flooding could wash onto other European countries’ shores. Russia blocked UN aid for the victims of this collapse.

Ukraine’s defence ministry said the European Union will train 30,000 soldiers this year as a part of the EU Military Assistance Mission for Ukraine (EUMAM).

Diplomacy

Speaking at a high-level meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Beijing to use its influence with Moscow in relation to the war in Ukraine and not supply weapons to Russia.

EU leaders plan to call on China next week to help bring an end to the war in Ukraine, a senior EU official told the Reuters news agency. EU leaders will meet for a summit in Brussels on June 29-30.

The EU will offer an aid package to Ukraine – made up of loans and grants – worth 50 billion euros ($55bn) for the next four years.

Norway’s foreign ministry said it would set aside 250 million kroner ($23m) for nuclear safety and security in Ukraine given the potentially far-reaching consequences of any nuclear accident.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US envoy to the United Nations, said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “primarily responsible” for the surge in the number of refugees in 2022.

Denmark’s defence ministry announced an additional aid package for Ukraine worth 21.9 billion kroner ($3.2bn) to include weapons, other military equipment, emergency equipment and training.

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The Possible Ways To End The War

As the war seems to have no dead-end, there still are numerous ways to bring both the parties on equal terms. To begin with, having a long term war. The use of military aggression until or unless one side claims its victory can be a prolonged process. This will carry highest risks as it can turn out to end as a full-fledged nuclear war.

Neither Kyiv nor Moscow seem to accept the defeat and drop their weapons in front of their rival at the present heights of dispute. This will leave high number of causalities on the both ends, with more count of civilians in Ukraine.

In addition to it, one of the sides surrendering is another way. If Russia retreats its troops from the region and surrenders, Ukraine will be autonomous to make a decision upon joining the NATO and the EU. The USA will get an upper hand in the eastern Europe and will likely use Ukraine as a military base to spy over Russia.

The long term peace settlement cannot be assured, keeping into account the security and military concerns of Russia. However, the chances of this happening seems null at the moment. If Ukraine surrenders, it will risk its democracy and sovereignty. It will lose its chance to be an autonomous nation in the Europe. Moreover, Russia’s invasion and hegemony in the region will magnify.

Furthermore, diplomatic talks between both the countries can be effective by establishing peace deal. The challenge here is to bring them to talk without any external mediation. Coming to a mutual conclusion is also very debatable due to the differing approaches of the parties towards negotiations. Considering latest developments, none of the sides seems keen to choose a diplomatic path.

Then, a ‘mutually agreed’ (by Russia and Ukraine) mediation of a third party. This point has been discussed in detail later in this article.

Lastly, strong intervention of forces like the UN and the NATO, and establishing ceasefire in Ukraine. It won’t be an end, but will bring an active warfare to rest, temporarily.

Putting sanctions on Russia and mutual agreements between both the parties will be necessary to ensure long term dispute settlement. Although, the NATO’s interference will less likely to interest Russia to have any round of talks with either the West or the Ukraine.

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Third Party Mediation

The Broader Picture

There is a territorial conflict involving four other regions in the area: South Ossetia, Transdniester, Abkhazia, and Nagorniy-Karabakh. They are all territorial disputes taking place on former Soviet Union territory. The current conflict focuses on the eastern Ukraine which has shown weak fidelity to the Centre and is more Russophile.

Then Crimea, since 1921, has been a part of Russia, but according to the International Law, it is a part of Ukrainian state. The mediator should be able to maintain a balance between all the arenas of the dispute and take actions accordingly.

According to the United Nations Mediation Guidelines, “mediation is a process whereby a third party assists two or more parties, with their consent, to prevent, manage or resolve a conflict by helping them to develop mutually acceptable agreements.” Mediation is a stepping stone to a shared future and strong bond.

But in this case, Germany and France have co-managed two cease-fire agreements in Ukraine, with Ukraine, Russia, Donetsk, and Luhansk as signatories; Russia appears to observe the pact rather than act as a guarantor. Given that Russia’s involvement is not mentioned expressly in any of the provisions, it could be argued that allowing one of the main actors to withdraw from or be exempt from the agreement at any point gives this actor an advantage over others.

Can Mediation Help Resolving The Conflict?

There have been arguments that as, according to the argumentators, Ukraine is the victim, thus, the decision of “if and when” to have diplomatic talks or mediation should lie with the Ukrainian government. There is a fear of losing, lack of trust and reluctance of either of the party to negotiate.

None the less, mediation is the most effective way of bringing both the parties on equal terms if the needed criteria of equal participation, inclusiveness, maintenance of decorum of International Law, etc., is met. A “mutually decided” mediator (by Russia and Ukraine) who is neutral enough to provide a space to both the parties to put forward their arguments and reflect their best interests can serve as a crucial asset. Anything less will just continue magnifying the “frozen” situation.

Can China Or India Mediate In Russia-Ukraine War?

China has been coming forward to act as as mediator in Russia-Ukraine war. China has not yet sent any weapons to Russia, but the proposal to mediate between the two rivals seems unlikely, taking into account China’s stance on the war. Beijing has not only constantly blamed the NATO for the conflict and has taken pro-Russian position, but has also maintained strong ties with Moscow throughout the history.

China’s neutrality can be its strategy to stabilize its tensed relations with the US and the EU, but the chances of achieving this is narrow. If China imposes sanctions, it would alienate itself from the only great power partner and bring hurdles in its bond with Russia. If it doesn’t, it would further strain its relations with the West.

Future progress in relations with the West might even become partly conditioned on Beijing sanctioning Moscow. Both options would most likely impose political and economic costs on China.

In another case, the only gain for China in a failed mediation would be that it would slightly improve its political image in the eyes of the West. Thus, mediating in the war is a risky factor for China.

India’s stance has been neutral since the beginning of the war. It has shown its concern towards the loss of lives and livelihood in Ukraine, but has never openly commented in favour of or against any side, believing that it would not help ending the conflict.

India believes that staying on its grounds is advantageous for its foreign policy and maintaining strong relations with the West and Russia. India has constantly emphasised on the need for diplomatic talks as the only effective means to end the crisis between the rivals.

The question whether India can act as a mediator is quite complicated considering differing views of Ukraine and Russia on India’s stance. Ukraine is skeptical about India’s intentions as India continues to purchase oil from Russia which, they believe, is contributing as funds to Russia to go against them.

India, to its defence, said that it will not restrict itself from procuring the best oil available in the market for its people, on the account of ongoing crisis. On the other hand, the bilateral relations between Russia and India have strengthened ever since the war started.

For instance, Russia now supplies 225 percent of all crude oil imports into India, surpassing both Iraq and Saudi Arabia as the nation’s top oil suppliers. Russia has always referred India as a “steady and time-tested partner”.

Commenting on India’s role as a mediator, Russia’s Foreign Minister had earlier said, “India is an important country. If India sees to play that role which provides resolution of the problem, if India is with its position of a just and rational approach to international problems, it can support such a process (India Can Play Mediator Between Moscow And Kyiv).”

India’s history of its “non-alignment” approach and a friend, to both the West and Russia, can be seen as a key mediator. When war began on Feb 24, 2022, New Delhi was quick to support Ukraine’s humanitarian needs.

But India has abstained from condemning Moscow’s actions at the United Nations – a consistent position that the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi says is in line with India’s foreign and defence policies. Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged India’s recent concerns about the war and reassured Modi at their meeting in Uzbekistan that Moscow would do everything to stop the war “as soon as possible”.

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Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine war doesn’t seem to end in the near future. It is crucial for both the sides to realize that the only way to bring settlements is through a series of diplomatic talks for a peace deal between the leaders with an intervention of a ‘mutually agreed’ third party mediator who can represent the best interests of both the countries and bring them to a mutual agreement.

A message should be conveyed that any form of political gain is not worth justifying the lives and livelihood lost. Military aggression only amplifies the chances of starting a full-fledged nuclear war.