According to a most recent study on the vulnerability of states to climate change, Karnataka ranked as a relatively moderately vulnerable state with a vulnerability index of 0.503. This article will focus on the following:
- Karnataka and Climate Change: Rainfall, Drought, Food crops, Fisheries, Forests
- How can Karnataka Contribute in Achieving the INDC Targets?
- Karnataka and a Just Transition: Gujarat and GHG Emissions; Gujarat and Renewable Energy
- Karnataka and Carbon Sink Creation
- Karnataka and Communities
I. Karnataka and Climate Change
Here is a brief assessment of the impact climate change has had and is projected to have on the state, its natural resources, livelihoods and people :
- Rainfall
In the past six decades, the rainfall that has been experienced by the decade has decreased in quantum, intensity and distribution, with reduction being prominent even in regions which generally receive very good rainfall, whereas there is only a marginal increase in the dry regions.
- Drought
It is critical to note that after Rajasthan, Karnataka is the second most drought prone state in the country with nearly 80% of its taluks being drought prone. Except for the years of 2005, 2010 and 2017, the state has almost always experienced droughts of various severities since deades.In 2019 itself, 49 taluks in the State were drought affected. It is without doubt that these droughts have a devastating impact on the local economy, agriculture, livestock and ecosystem of the affected region in addition to crop loss, drinking water scarcity, fodder scarcity, loss and livelihood, unemployment to rural agricultural labourers etc., The continuous drought periods have additionally had implications on in fact mortality, maternal mortality, malnutrition, childhood diseases, sanitation etc.,
- Food Crops
Agriculture indeed is the most vulnerable sector to climate change. Especially in Karnataka, where agriculture is mainly rain dependent, the variation in precipitation will indefinitely alter the agriculture pattern and production to a significant degree. The Karnataka Biodiversity Board predicts that owing to climate change effects in the state, approximately 6 % of the cereal crops, 85 % of legume species and 13% of vegetable species are under threat of extinction. A study by BCCI – K also found that kharif crops may witness greater changes in their productivity registering at least -14.4 % loss from their base yields, ith similar losses around 8.2 % for irrigated rice.
- Fisheries
The State of Karnataka has a continental shelf of 27,000 km, 320 km of coastline and 5.20 hectares of inland water area. In addition to this, the state has around 8000 hectare of brackish water providing ample opportunities for shrimp farming. The dependent population on these water sources is around 8 lakh . It is predicted that climate change will induce phonological changes in fishes especially in the plankton and small pelagic fish, thereby changing the scales of primary production and disrupting the finishing livelihoods of millions.
- Forests
A research group led by BCCI-K evaluated that 38 % of the forest area of Karnataka would be impacted by climate change by 2030 since the projected climate by them would not be suitable for certain existing forest types and species present. Similarly, 18 of the 54 forest grids of the western ghats region are also projected to undergo changes by the 2030s.
II. How can Karnataka Contribute in Achieving the INDC Targets?
Under the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty that came into force in 2016, India pledged to do the following as its Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030 :
1. To reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33%–35% below 2005 levels.
2. Increase the share of non-fossil fuels-based electricity to 40 per cent.
3. Enhance its forest cover which will absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
The states of the country, too, in accordance with their capacity and resources have roles to fulfil when it comes to achieving this target. This document will examine the three ways through which such a target can be achieved. The methods explored will be that of a ‘just transition’, where in the transition from a fossil fuel based economy to a renewable energy or a green economy, the benefits accruing out of the same are distributed to all, and that no group is adversely affected as a consequence of the same too. In addition to this, the document will also navigate the opportunities for innovation, employment and growth available to the State in this process of a transition. Finally, natural resource dependent communities, their contribution and protection will be highlighted and aligned with the discourse on India’s nationally determined contributions.
III. Karnataka and a Just Transition
- Karnataka and GHG Emissions
In 2011, the annual total emissions from Karnataka was around 80.2 million tons of carbon dioxide. Here’s a breakdown of the three greenhouse gas emissions :
Among the states of the country, Karnataka is the fourth largest consumer of coal at seven percent of the total consumption. It is then not surprising to note that coal is the principal source of emissions from the state’s manufacturing activities at a remarkable eighty-six percent.
Source : Karnataka’s Green House Gas Inventory
Karnataka’s Power sector emits 28.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year hile the transport sector emits 8.4 million tons per year.
In the city of Bangalore, emissions due to electricity consumption alone account for 28% of the total emissions, with residential lighting being the largest carbon dioxide emitter of all. The transport sector of the city is another major culprit of the emissions, with its share being 35% sharing its status with solid waste disposal, also at 35%. The following is the Electricity Market Composition for the state :
Source : Karnataka’s Electricity Sector Transformation
- Karnataka and Renewable Energy
If the tremendous contribution that Karnataka is making to the emissions of the country, is not a reason enough for the State to undergo a transition at the earliest, the complex state of its coal sector should be a compelling reason enough for policymakers and administrations to make quick adaptations to a transition.
Karnataka does not have any in-state coal production, therefore it is dependent entirely on coal that is delivered via railways from mines outside the state and on imported seaborne coal, which are located at a minimum of 700 – 1200 kilometers distance from the power plants. As a consequence of which, the state is facing severe rail logistics issues, additional transportation-related costs, possibility of supply shortages etc., IEEFA in fact believes that the state’s coal fired power plants are in fact, potential stranded assets that impose an additional risk on the distribution companies, the banks and the overall economy of the State. The 1.72 GW Raichur Thermal Plant, which is owned by Karnataka Power Corporation Ltd, will reach the end of life by 2021 – 2022 and is already running on entirely out-dated subcritical technology..
This speaks volumes on the urgent basis for which a transition needs to be made. Owing to these factors, and the geographical advantage, Karnataka has in fact been doing well, yet not enough. Between the period from April 2017 to December 2020, Karnataka has emerged as the leader in promoting clean energy in the country, recording the largest quantity of solar, wind, small hydro and bio power during this period.
Source: The Hindu Businessline dated 4th March, 2021
c. Challenges and Opportunities
d. Stakeholders
IV. Karnataka and Carbon Sink Creation
As we know, one of India’s NDC is the creation of an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
According to the State of Indian Forests, 2019, Karnataka has 38, 500 sq km of forest cover which is 20 percent of its total geographical area. It is phenomenal that the state has recorded a significant gain in forest cover compared to the rest of the country at 1, 025 sq km since 2017. Moreover, Karnataka also has 123 natural inland wetlands covering an area of approximately 15000 sq km.
Karnataka has a total carbon stock of 3,83,000 tonnes from various sources such as Above Ground Biomass, Below Ground Biomass, dead wood, litter and SOC. However, it is equally important to note that approximately 20 % of the current forest cover of the state is moderately to extremely fire prone.
Despite this progress that the State has been in terms of increasing forest cover in the country, it has been reported that the predominant driver of vulnerability of Karnataka to climate change is its lack of lower availability of forest area per 1000 of the rural population.
V. Communities
In the state of Karnataka alone, around 6000 tonnes of fuelwood, 21000 tonnes of fodder, 41000 tonnes of small timber is collected annually by the people living in the FFVs from the forests.
Source : People and Forests, State of Indian Forests, 2019
This has resulted in the state being a top ten in terms of dependence on forests for fuelwood.
Source : People and Forests, State of Indian Forests, 2019
However, an important aspect that overshadows this dependency is the factor that usually the Karnataka state government allots wasteland to be used for the construction of renewable energy projects. This wasteland often overlaps with common property resources, for some of the most degraded lands in the country are actually common property resources. Common Property Resources are those resources on which people of a certain community have an equal right of use. These resources could include community pastures, community forests, wastelands and common dumping and threshing grounds. Moreover, on top of this, there exists no single category or classification of land use in India that actually corresponds to the term, ‘common lands’. Therefore, it is often pushed into categories or classified as forest land, grazing land, gram sabha land, gram panchayat land or worse, simply ‘wasteland’. Therefore, it is such kind of wasteland, without accommodating the needs of the people that it serves, that is converted into use for renewable energy projects and such.
Source : Created using Common Property Resources in India
As has been demonstrated, rural households, fringe forest villages and resource dependent communities heavily depend on those common property resources for providing materials that they use and sell. In addition to this, they also are the predominant sources of livelihood for them since they are the source of fodder for their livestock. Therefore, common property resources are critical to the sustenance of livelihoods, improving rural economy and doubling farmers incomes.unfortunately, owing to historical usage of land, absence of legal definitions and a policy paralysis regarding the same, these common property resources , when lay under the control of the state are often classified into wasteland and diverted to renewable energy projects. This nexus between land use and community dependency is often ignored.
Source : Wasteland Map
It is in light of this, that the Forest Rights Act, 2006 ought to be implemented effectively so as to conserve the community rights of such communities. However, Karnataka suffers from poor implementation of this Act. For , uptp 2017, approximately 6000 community claims under the act were made, of which only 600 odd titles have been distributed till date, amounting to a mere 26,000 acres of forest land.. Now, this serves a dual purpose :
- Historically and empirically, it has been proved and established that allocating property rights improve the conservation efforts of the communities. Since the sustainable lifestyle of resource dependent communities already aids in the reservation of natural resources, adding the element of property security enhances these efforts, while at the same time securing the rights of generations and preventing destitution. This amplification of their conservation efforts will only aid in ensuring that the country can achieve the creation of a carbon sink through just and inclusive means.
- The Common Property resources are the most predominant method of sustenance of rural livelihoods. Moreover, the collection of NTFPs by forest dwellers, hen they are duly recognised under the Forest Rights Act, 006, present tremendous potential for a sustained livelihood and source of income too. The Forest Rights Act of 2006 is the only available legal instrument in the country to award legal protection to these resources, and must be utilized efficiently and justly.