So, Nitish Kumar again quit NDA and joined with RJD-led UPA. No one should be surprised by it. The simple logic is that Nitish Kumar did it earlier and will do it later if situations warrant his ambition.
However, I am a bit surprised that Nitish Kumar perhaps didn’t do the real math and may be heading towards a political suicide. How? Read on.
Source- TOI
Let’s see the numbers of the Bihar assembly. If you add the numbers of BJP (77) and JDU (45), the total comes to 122. Exactly the majority without any margin. The other NDA allies like HAM and the independent can switch to any site that is in power. Thus, considering that aspect, we can count that RJD can acquire the support of 120 members (A total of 242-122) if it can even manage the sole AIMIM MLA. That means to make Tejaswi Yadav as Chief Minister, RJD needs to break just three members of the JDU party (who can be asked to resign). Isn’t it a golden chance for RJD to get the power?
One can say that RJD may agree for Nitish to be CM to keep BJP away from power. There are three reasons. First, BJP might be in coalition but actually, JDU is in power as Nitish Kumar is CM. Second, RJD had burnt its finger in giving Nitish Kumar the CM post despite having more numbers in the previous Mahagathbandhan alliance. A third and important factor is that Nitish is losing popularity and JDU is constantly shrinking. So, why RJD will trust Nitish Kumar who again may go back to NDA?
That’s why RJD is playing its card very carefully. First, it will agree to be with Nitish Kumar to see the fall of the NDA government. In the short run, they will also concede the Chief Minister post to Nitish Kumar. But soon they will dethrone Nitish Kumar and probably break JDU to make Tejaswi Yadav Chief Minister.
What will happen to Nitish Kumar then? There won’t be coming back to NDA. Can’t be part of Mahagthbandhan. So, what will be the end result? The end of the legacy of Nitish Kumar.
Has Nitish Kumar done his math right on this aspect? No, perhaps he didn’t else he couldn’t have been politically suicidal at the moment.