The United States was the hegemon in the unipolar world for two decades after the Cold War. At the beginning of the 21st century, it is not possible for the United States to lead alone due to various geographical, military and economic reasons . The present world is neither unipolar nor bipolar, but is moving towards a multipolar world. Not one, but many superpowers exist in today’s world. Among them, China is one of the superpowers. China is currently becoming very strong in military, economic and political aspects. The construction of Chinese military bases in the African country of Djibouti, the rapid growth of China’s economy – these have increased the possibilities of China. China has already established a very strong position regionally. Currently, one of the major topics being discussed is whether China can be a single leader or hegemon in the future world political system?
What is Hegemon ?
A hegemon is a state that has the power to implement the rules of the international political and economic system and to dominate that system alone. International politics is power politics, where each state is concerned with its own interests, and states are concerned with increasing their own power and security. There are some states in the international political system, which have comparatively more political, economic and military influence. According to the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci, hegemony is the ‘cultural, moral and ideological’ leadership of a group over allied and subaltern groups.
Joseph Nye states, “ The term hegemony is applied to a variety of situations where one state appears to have substantially more power than others. Hegemony is often used to refer to different behaviors and levels of control.
When more than two states are dominant in an international political system, it is called a multipolar world political system. Kindleberger in his ‘ The World in Depression, 1929-1939In the book, he said, there was no single leadership in the pre-World War I world, but multiple leaderships existed. He attributed the absence of hegemons to World War I. Again, in the Cold War world, the influence of the United States, the leader of the democratic world, and the Soviet Union, the leader of the socialist world, were equal in international politics, which is called a bipolar system. In such a system there is a balance of power, and there is no hegemon. Therefore, there was still no single hegemon state in the world. Again, in the post-Cold War decade, the United States was the single most powerful and influential country in the world, i.e. the hegemon. When a state has sole leadership in international politics, that state is called a hegemon.
We will call a state a hegemon only when it has some characteristics that give an idea of the influence and prestige of the state in international politics. That is, a state must have certain characteristics to be a hegemonic state.
Conditions for becoming a hegemon state
A state can be called a hegemon only when the state has some distinctive features that make the state so dominant.
1. Power and ability to enforce the rules of the international system: The hegemon must have the power and ability to enforce the rules of international politics and the international system. The hegemon must have the political and military power, and superior national power, to create international organizations and new international rules. Hegemons cannot increase their military power with only self-defense in mind. It also has to think about how to send military aid to its loyal states in distress. Not only a large army, the hegemon also needs to have strong air defenses and a strong naval force to prevent seaborne attacks due to geographical reasons. For example, the establishment of NATO by the United States in 1949, and the formation of the Warsaw Pact in 1955. Moreover, by establishing the IMF and the World Bank, the United States has been able to establish leadership in the world to a large extent by using them.
2. Large and growing economy: A state does not have to be strong or capable only militarily or politically. It must have a large and growing economy. Because the economy is a big blessing of international politics. Karl Marx called economy the basic structure of society. One of the reasons for the fall of Soviet Russia was economic weakness. The hegemonic state has to provide different financial assistance to other states from time to time. Moreover, one must be economically self-sufficient to meet the needs of the people of one’s country. Because, without the support of the people, the power of the state will not last.
3. Uncontested dominance in at least one leading economic or technological sector:
No state is now solely independent, but dependent on other states. A hegemon state must have a sector in its economy in which that state has sole dominance. Moreover, when the hegemon’s economy is under pressure, it can rely on that sector to keep its economy afloat.
4. Capability with the will to lead: For a state to be hegemon, it must have the will to lead the world. In that case, a weak state cannot become a hegemon at will. The state must have the will as well as the ability. In the run-up to World War I, Great Britain had the will to lead, but was unable to. The state must have the ability to maintain stability in the international system through its leadership. Where the opposite state of energy balance will prevail. Great Britain therefore failed to become the hegemon of the pre-World War I world.
What is China’s potential?
Today, China is the fourth largest country in the world and a large economy. China is considered as a rival of America. China’s current GDP is 20.94 trillion , which is currently the second largest GDP. Although America’s GDP is the world’s largest GDP, China is the world’s largest economy in some respects. China has a large manpower, which has a lot of thinking power and innovation capacity. According to the Congressional Budget Office, America’s national debt will exceed 717% of GDP by 2080. China is also stronger than America in terms of foreign exchange reserves. Recently, China has been increasing its military power. Increased the military budget. Now the question is – can China become a global hegemon in the future?
The characteristics of a state to become hegemon have been discussed earlier. China is one of the most powerful countries in the world today. Permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. China is modernizing its military. Their current military spending has increased to $143 billion, with the US spending $782 billion, Russia $65.9 billion, and India $76.6 billion. In this regard, China is ahead of other countries, but it has not reached the level of America.
To gain power in today’s world, a state must garner the support of its people and political institutions. In this regard, democratic states are ahead. China’s political system is not so stable. Moreover, China still lags behind other states in national power dominance. According to David Vine, professor of political anthropology at American University in Washington, DC , as of July 2021, the United States had about 750 military bases in at least 80 countries, while China has military bases in only a handful of countries. China has the largest army of 2.1 million soldiers in the world, but they are not ahead in science and technology like America and Russia.
China started showing its influence in the world since 1970. The superpower China we see today began from then. It is said that any state can become a hegemon if it has a large economy and a large military. Although China has both characteristics, it is not enough compared to other countries in the world.
China is progressing economically. It is estimated that by 2025, China will account for 30% of the world’s total production. China has connected more than 70 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa through its ‘ Belt and Road Initiative ‘ (BRI). Its purpose is to build new infrastructure projects on three continents in the name of economic integration between the countries strategically with Beijing.
But, one of China’s major weaknesses is the United States, which buys a large portion of the country’s products. In that case, China has a dependent relationship with the United States. China is dominating regional trade with projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. But as they are unilaterally export-oriented countries, the progress of their economy has to suffer from various tariffs, currency manipulation. China’s current economic growth rate (9.5%), is expected to triple in the next 30 years. But in international commercial organizations like IMF, World Bank, China does not have such influence and prestige as America. That is why China has formed some regional trade alliances. For example, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) . Moreover, China has the largest population in the world.
China is in a trade conflict with the United States, Europe and various countries in Asia on various issues, including violation of human rights of Uyghurs and other minorities in their country, unfair trade practices. Moreover, the Chinese debt trap has left the country quite embarrassed.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that no matter how powerful China becomes, it will never seek hegemony. Although he said this, China’s behavior shows that it wants to retain influence in international politics. It is undeniable that China is a dominant force in current international politics, and a regional hegemon state. But China’s economy and military are not equal to America in any way. As it lags behind America, it is very difficult for China to become a global hegemon. China has a long way to go to become an international hegemon. Although many domestic problems have hindered China, their progress is commendable. Although not possible in the next few decades, China has great potential in the near future.