The BJP winning the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2022 was never in doubt. The Opinion Polls presented that the BJP is winning. In fact, the Opinion Polls suggested the BJP winning around 40% of the vote share, whereas they estimated the SP to get the highest vote share — 33%.
In my two pre-poll articles — Ram Temple Or Caste Identity: Which Is The Bigger Factor In UP Elections? and UP Elections: Will BJP Be In The Soup Because Of Its MLAs Joining Akhilesh Yadav? — I have explained in detail how the demographic equation and anti-incumbency work in UP. In both the articles, I was confident that if the BJP is getting around 40% vote share, it will win the majority because the SP can’t go beyond 33% vote-share because of the caste equation.
However, I am not surprised but really curious as to how the BJP in fact got a larger mandate than its mandate in 2017, despite five years of anti-incumbency. Please note that in all my analyses, I never talk about the number of seats, but only vote share. The BJP got a vote share of 39.67% during the 2017 Assembly Elections whereas, in this election, it got a vote share of 41.29%, an increase of 1.62% vote share.
Generally, parties retain power with a reduced vote share because the alternative parties may not garner a larger vote share than the incumbent. But here, the BJP got a larger vote share, which means it’s a positive mandate by the public despite incumbency.
On the other hand, Samajwadi Party had a vote share of 21.82% in 2017 and increased its vote share up to 32.06% only. The gap between the BJP and the SP is around 9.23% in this election, despite literally being a two-way contest. This speaks of how large a mandate the BJP got. It’s nothing but natural to find out the reasons. According to me, the followings are the reasons:
Those who say (including BJP leaders) that the BJP has demolished the caste equation in UP, according to me, are not truthful. How caste equations work in UP in the present day has been explained in detail by me in my previous articles (as referred to in the first paragraph). However, I would say that the BJP, in fact, better managed its caste equation than the SP and the BSP.
Let me briefly explain why I say so. The SP came to power riding on the OBC vote bank (in addition to the Muslim vote bank). After it got power, the Yadav community got prominence and the non-Yadav OBCs were discriminated against. This made the non-Yadav community desert the SP and switch to the BJP.
Similarly, the BSP’s main vote bank was Dalits. But during Mayawati’s tenure, the Jatav Dalits got prominence as Mayawati belongs to the Jatav community. This resulted in the desertion of the non-Jatav Dalits from the BSP. The political and social rivalry in UP is such that the OBCs can’t support the BSP and the Dalits can’t support the SP.
The available options were the BJP and Congress. The BJP was more credible than the Congress to win the election, thus, all rallied behind the BJP. This has been happening since the 2014 General Election. It was being thought that these newly joined castes may ditch the BJP because of incumbency and there might be discrimination to some caste or community during BJP’s tenure. But it is clearly visible now that neither any caste nor any community has been given either any prominence nor have they been discriminated against. So, managing the share of castes and communities in the party has been great and thus, the BJP got the super mandate.
This is how different social groups voted in the #UPElection2022. All non-BJP pol parties should frame it n put it up in their offices. If they will be seen again only after 5 years & not in streets tomorrow, they'll get similar table in the next #ElectionResults #UPElection pic.twitter.com/N3uZGdXwIG
— Arun Kumar (@drKrArun) March 12, 2022
The SP, no doubt, made a loud and aggressive campaign. The campaign was so vocal that it made a silent counter polarisation. The BJP wasn’t very vocal about the Ram temple or another pro-Hindutwa line. But the SP and others ensured the Hindu counter-polarisation narrative because of the SP’s vocal campaign and giving away of tickets to Muslim candidates who have been accused of serious crimes.
Suddenly, Priyanka Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav started wearing Hindu attires that, in fact, exposed the desperation of the dividing Hindu votes. That’s another reason for the silent Hindu counter-polarisation. The BSP wasn’t visible on the ground. This gave an impression that the BSP had a secrete understanding with the SP to unite the Muslim community behind the SP. That’s another reason why counter-polarisation happened. Nowadays, the public is smart and understands every tactic of the parties.
The bulldozer reference convinced the public about the BJP’s success on the law and order in UP. Politics causes damage to any anti-BJP party.
Finally, I would say that the farm agitation had no effect on the Assembly polls. According to me, it had no political effect at any time. However, I will explain this in future articles.
In conclusion, I would say that the above explains why the BJP got a bumper mandate in this election. I would suggest anti-BJP parties to rethink their strategies. Conventional vote bank politics, hypocrisy in politics and opposing everything under the sun won’t make you a credible alternative. A credible alternative always plays constructive opposition.
This is missing and thus, the BJP is going on deep-rooted in India and especially in the UP polity.