The BJP has done exceedingly well in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. However, I think that the BJP’s success in these three states is more due to the failure of Congress as a party. There are some issues in the functioning of the party that couldn’t cash in even when the BJP was on backfoot due to anti-incumbency and performance of the Chief Minister. Let us deliberate on each state in detail.
Uttarakhand
In my previous article on Uttarakhand that was published on this platform, I demonstrated how the BJP’s vote share is going up (at the cost of non-Congress parties). I also demonstrated that Congress’s vote share, too, is going up but not to the extent of the BJP’s.
In 2017, the BJP’s vote share jumped from 33.13% in 2012 to 46.5%, an incredible 13+% jump. On the other hand, Congress’s vote share was down from 33.79% to 33.5%, a negligible drop. In my article, I had predicted that if the Congress gets 35-38% votes as per opinion polls, then it may not able to form the government. Opinion polls also showed that the BJP might get a 36-44% vote share.
As the result, the Congress got 37.9% whereas the BJP got 44.3% votes, exactly the same way opinion polls had predicted. For the first time, the BJP’s vote share decreased whereas Congress’s vote share saw a jump of around 3%. This means there was anti-incumbency against the BJP, but Congress couldn’t prove to be a credible alternative. The incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami lost the election, yet, the BJP won the election with a two-thirds majority. I would definitely say it’s Congress’s failure to take advantage of anti-Incumbency.
Goa
The weakening of Congress was further proved in Goa’s election. This year, despite the absence of Manohar Parrikar and anti-incumbency, the BJP increased its vote share from 32.5% to 33.3%. The increase might be just 0.8% but it’s significant as such vote share came after a decade of anti-incumbency.
What happened to the Congress? Its vote share reduced from 28.4% to 23.5%, a drop of 5%. What do these figures speak? They indicate that the Congress doesn’t appear to be credible in spite of anti-incumbency against the BJP.
Manipur
This northeastern state further proved that the Congress is really heading to oblivion. For the first time, the BJP won the majority in the state despite anti-incumbency. Its vote share increased from 36.28% to 37.83%. On the other hand, the Congress lost 18.57% vote share from 35.11% in 2017 to a mere 16.83% in 2022. When a national party loses more than 50% vote share, then you must be sure that there’s something wrong with the party. It just won five seats in the state; even the JDU and NPP won more seats than the Congress.
The Congress called the CWC meeting on March 13 to discuss the poll debacle in the recently concluded five state assembly elections. Many well-wishers expected that the Congress would take some strong action — in the form of reforms within the party or policies to save the party from going down. But as expected, full faith is reposed on the interim President Sonia Gandhi. Some members demanded to make Rahul Gandhi the president.
What the Congress must realise is that the Gandhi family can’t take the party upward anymore. Dynastic parties are not accepted by the public anymore. Just see the condition of the SAD, SP, RJD, LJP, etc. It’s time to trust state and local leaders from the party. The family may remain invisible for some time till the Congress becomes visible in the Indian polity. That can’t happen till the Congress performs sycophancy.
Democracy always functions well when there’s strong opposition. A weaker opposition results in a monopoly of the ruling party. It doesn’t matter how good the ruling party is, what has mattered more is the availability of credible alternatives in a democratic polity. Unfortunately, the Congress is heading towards oblivion and there is perhaps nobody who can arrest this slipping down for now.