Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings grim memories of Crimea’s annexation in 2014, with Moscow now proposing an all-around assault on Kyiv.
It also brings the question of a proposed cold war 2.0 very vociferously propounded once by Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the U.S.S.R., under whom the situation between the U.S.A. and U.S.S.R. normalised.
Cold war refers to a heightened situation between two superpowers. Although there is no war between the two, a situation of aggression and tension plays out in the form of proxy wars. Over the years, there have been several instances of these cold wars with Vietnam, Korea, Iran and Greece, to name a few.
President Joe Biden has criticised his Russian counterpart’s move as “an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces” and said the “world will hold Russia accountable”. However, the effects are already felt the world over with widespread condemnation from American allies and politics and foreign policy rebalance among adversaries.
India is also not immune from this threat of a full-scale escalation and the disruption it has caused to supply chains, with the world economy just beginning to show some resistance and growth, the new escalation between the two will cause more disruptions and chaos.
Closer to home in India, the escalation will have several ramifications, most notably in the energy sector, with a barrel of brent crude already going for a 7 year high of $100 and set to average around $110 a barrel. This will invariably push the Consumer Price Index and will have bearings on consumptions and expenditures which will have to be borne by the people.
The Government meanwhile is also studying the possibility of using oil from its strategic reserves in a view to assuage the inflated price. Another impact is the disruption in the supply chain, especially since India has sizeable exports to the European Union and will surely have a bearing further in our forex reserves.
Ukraine and Russia also account for a sizeable number of students from India varying in fields like Pharma, IT and Engineering. This will unleash another wave of humanitarian crisis.
For it to curtail, the crisis needs a geopolitical and multifarious approach. Using a view to isolate Russia will only embolden it to strengthen its ties with China further. It is also imperative for the U.S.A. to take the lead and walk the talk in the UNSC meet rather than vying for a NATO offensive because the last thing the world needs is the endearing prospect of World War 3.