Anyone with basic knowledge about Indian Politics would know defeating the NDA is a gargantuan task. In a state like UP, where the poll results are slated to set the momentum for the 2024 Assembly election, the task becomes even harder. So the mere fact that Akhilesh Yadav led SP was able to pull a bipolar contest in UP is commendable.
The BJP is increasingly getting wary of the bipolar contest and SP’s appeal among the masses. Modi has even resorted to cheap tactics like linking SP’s poll symbol, cycle, to the vehicle used for bombs tars. Not only does it present an alternative to NDA, but it will also help consolidate an anti-BJP vote towards Samajwadi’s side, which can prove to be heavily detrimental for the saffron party.
The Samajwadi Party is contesting the polls in alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal, Pragatisheel Samaj Party (Lohia), Mahan Dal, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, Janvadi Party (Socialist) and the Nationalist Congress Party. The alliance with the RLD may also be giving it a sizable share of Jat votes in West UP.
SP’s strategically crafted rainbow coalition with small parties is expected to earn some gains, especially in caste minority regions.
Exit polls have predicted that SP would be able to make a minor dent in BJP’s vote bank, but BJP led NDA Alliance would still form the government in UP.
In the party’s three-decade-long history, SP had never crossed 30% of the vote share in Uttar Pradesh, even when it came to power in 1993, 2003 and 2012. The consolidation of Muslim votes, the shift of Jat votes coupled with incremental gains among other communities based on candidates will help SP cross 30% votes overall in 2022 polls, but it won’t be enough to defeat the BJP.
C-Voter exit poll, The Today’s Chanakya exit poll, Jan Ki Baat exit poll, The Times Now-Veto exit poll predictions indicate that SP could comfortably gain more than 100 plus seats in UP. This exit poll prediction is important if one takes a rough look at the electoral history of UP in the last 30 years.
SP’s campaign this election season has revolved around offering new jobs and improving the economy. While they have successfully strayed away from unnecessarily putting their leg in the communal politics muddle, voters are still apprehensive about whether SP has what it takes to resolve the issues plaguing the UP economy.
From stray cattle menace, unemployment to women’s safety, voters remain sceptical about SP’s capabilities to resolve these issues.
If the poll predictions and survey results are to be believed, SP’s strategy and campaign narratives have shaken the political corridors of BJP in UP. Putting a dent in the one-party-dominated political arena in UP is not a small feat and an achievement worth celebrating for SP, irrespective of how the poll results turn out on 10 March.