Many think India is in a difficult situation in the event of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Both the US and Ukrainian presidents dialed the Indian prime minister to support the anti-Russia proposal at the UNSC (United Nations’ Security Council).
But, India along with China and the UAE abstained from voting. The Ukrainian envoy to New Delhi expressed a deep dissatisfaction at this move.
Although the US and the west said nothing openly, it appears that they are not happy with India’s present stand. And, maybe in the coming days, India will be in a tight spot due to the massive sanctions imposed on Russia.
Many experts have different opinions on India’s stand on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some say India should move on and partner with the US and the west, especially the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies.
As India is a part of the QUAD, and China is enemy number one, they say that it should reassess its relationship with Russia especially because Russia and China are aligning with each other right now.
On the other hand, many experts opine that because of the long history of India-Russia relations, India shouldn’t ditch Russia in an outright manner. Others say that India should walk the tight rope of international relations, and try not to be isolated along with Russia.
Indo-Russian Relations Go Back A Long Time
India has an independent foreign policy of general non-alignment. It’s a part of BRICS as well as QUAD. Also, India hasn’t entered in any major military alliance till date.
We are not a country that unquestioningly supports the US, or any other country’s line for that matter. Our foreign policy is independent of others, and not intended at intervening in the disputes of other countries.
The present situation is really a complicated one. The way the US, NATO, and other countries have started isolating Russia, it may so happen that India will be forced to take a stand as international pressure mounts. So, what should India do?
In foreign policy, the decisions are made considering history, intent of relations, and possible future context. I am a student of “decision analysis”, according to which decisions are never judged based on the outcome. Rather, they are judged by the process of arriving at a decision.
Let’s deliberate what India’s stand should be at the moment.
India and Russia relations started in 1955, and we got closer in 1962. During 1959-1962, during the Indo-China border dispute, although the Soviet Union declared itself to be neutral, it started helping India economically and militarily. It did so despite strong objections from China, who is considered as a blood brother of the Soviet Union because of their shared communist ideology.
Russia Has Helped India, Militarily
While in India, Nikita Khrushchev supported India’s sovereignty over Kashmir and Goa (which was under Portuguese control then). It is important to note that neither the US nor anyone else from the west supported India’s claims in Kashmir and Goa.
In 1962, the Soviet Union agreed to transfer the technology of “MIG-21” fighter jets to India, and the same was manufactured here. A point to be noted is that the US supported Pakistan at that time, and provided it with heavy military equipment such as Patton tanks, F-16 fighter jets, etc.
Because of the American war machine, Pakistan dared to attack India in 1965. Again, it was the Soviet Union that brokered a truce between us warring neighbours at Tashkent.
During the 1971 Indo-Pak war to liberate Bangladesh, the Soviet Union stood with India, whereas the US and China stood with Pakistan. When India carried out its first nuclear bomb test in Pokhran, in 1974, the US imposed sanctions on us, but the Soviet Union supported us.
Similarly, the second set of nuclear bomb tests (1998) was also supported by Russia, but opposed by the US, who imposed sanctions on us yet again. Even Ukraine, which was an independent country by then, condemned India in the UN and supported the said sanctions.
The US Only Cares About Its Own Interests
At present, 50% of India’s arms and ammunition are of Russian origin. So, India’s defence capability will be seriously jeopardised if India ditches Russia hastily.
India’s relationship with the US improved during the tenure of George W Bush, and since then, the relationship between both the countries has only grown stronger. But, here is a catch: Russia never opposed India’s relationship with the US.
On the other hand, all the Indo-American ties are either conditional, or based on the self-interests of the US. It is not improving its relations with India because we are a democratic country. It has supported many military juntas (especially Pakistan’s military dictators) and monarchies in the middle east.
Its only purpose is “America first” (which is not a bad thing as such, all countries generally operate out of self-interest). But then, the US can ditch its allies when its purpose is fulfilled. In the past 70 years, the world has realised how the US only looks out for its own interests.
In the present Indo-American relationship, the US has one compulsion i.e, to contain China’s influence in Asia and the world over. But, India must realise that if there is a war between India and China, then India will be alone in countering China. The US won’t do anything except to express its solidarity.
India Will Be Smart To Stick With Russia
On the other hand, despite Russia maintaining neutrality in the Indo-China dispute, it will help us by providing us with arms and ammunition. Just take the recent case of the “S-400” missile procurement.
China is extremely opposed to this deal. Yet, Russia prioritised India’s security requirements over China’s objections.
Thus, it’s time to stand with Russia diplomatically, because the present war is temporary, but the existence of countries is permanent. Many think that Russia is being isolated now, and thus, this will be the end of Russia’s story. However, I don’t think so!
Rather, Europe will face a lot of problems if the economic sanctions against Russia are continued for long. This is because Russia supplies oil and natural gas to many European countries.
In conclusion, I would say that India’s policy towards the Russia-Ukraine dispute should be driven by an “India first” principle, and be based on history and the character of our relationships. India is perfectly right in abstaining from the UNSC voting, and not condemning Russia.
Russia has saved India in the UN several times, so India has an obligation towards Russia. The bottom line is that India is a free country with an independent foreign policy. Those countries who want to disassociate from India, are free to do so at their own peril.