Many thought that the year-long farmers’ agitation would affect the assembly elections of five states, especially in UP, Punjab, and Uttarakhand. The government of India repealed all three laws.
Although many experts, including many farmer unions, supported the farm laws. The farm agitation is projected as a pan India phenomenon, but that wasn’t the case. Now the result of the assembly elections is out. Thus, let’s examine the political impact.
The Jat-Sikh population in Punjab is around 21 to 25%, and they own more than 80% of the state’s land. Shiromani Akali Dal’s (SAD) core vote bank is Jat-Sikhs, and SAD got just an 18.38% vote share. Sanyukta Samaj Morcha, the political front of 22 farmer’s unions (part of agitating part of farmer agitation), contested in all 117 seats of Punjab, thinking that they enjoy the support of the majority of the Punjab population.
But Punjab people rejected them outrightly, and the Morcha lost deposits in all the seats. The highest vote polled by their leader Balwir Singh Rajewal is around 4% in Samrala. That speech supports the farm agitation gained in Punjab. BJP is insignificant in Punjab. However, as BJP was the target of the farm agitators, one should think that BJP would lose whatever vote share it had during 2017.
But that didn’t happen. BJP had a 5.4% vote share during the 2017 assembly election and got a 6.6% vote share in the 2022 assembly election. That means BJP’s vote share increased by 1.2%, which means farm agitation did not affect BJP’s electoral politics.
Now let’s come to Uttar Pradesh. Jat-leaders from Western UP were leading the farm agitation, and even Rakesh Tikait called farmers not to vote for BJP. Many were afraid that such a call could harm BJP’s prospects. Did that happen?
Let’s go to the first phase voting comparison. In the first phase, 11 districts, namely Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Baghpet, Meerut, Ghaziabad, GB Nagar, Bulandshahar, Aligarh, Mathura, and Agra. This region is also called Jatland.
This can be seen in BJP’s 49.7% vote share in 2022 compared to 46.3% in 2017. That means a jump of 3.4% vote share in Jatland! Only a fool will believe that Tikait’s ‘no vote to BJP’ ultimately failed. SP and RLD also got more vote share, but that’s at the cost of BSP’s vote share. What is proved in this result?
Let’s go to the second phase result. In this phase, there were nine districts, namely, Saharanpur, Rampur, Bijnor, Amroha, Sambhal, Moradabad, Bareilly, Badaun, and Sahjahanpur. These nine districts have a population of t crores, and Muslims comprise around 35% of the population in this phase. The Jat-Muslim combination is expected by SP and RLD in the context of farmer agitation and, to some extent, anti-CAA agitation also. What was the result?
BJP’s vote share jumped from 38.3% in 2017 to 40.3% in 2022. A 2% increase in vote share! Does this speak about damaging effects on BJP owing to farmers’ agitation? No, simply not. Similarly, BJP winning a two-thirds majority in Uttarakhand says that there’s no effect on BJP’s poll prospects in Uttarakhand due to farm agitation.
The bottom line is that the central government dared for significant reform in the farm sector, which was objected to by a few people and fuelled by opposition political parties. Even the BJP dispensation was worried. But it’s proved that the agitation wasn’t supported by many.
Most of the population in India depends on agriculture. Agriculture is the most significant employment-providing sector in India. The farm sector needs reforms urgently to uplift the conditions of the farmers. Will there be a more considerable protest by farm unions who supported farm laws? Many farm unions have already told the Supreme Court that they will organize a bigger protest.
In the end, I would suggest that there’s no gain in protests and counter-protests. Instead, the agitators and supporters should sit with the government and induce reforms in the agricultural sector. The politicization of such issues, stubbornness, ego, and point-scoring will only harm the farmer community at large. I hope good sense prevails on all the stakes holders.