The results of the Punjab assembly election 2022 aren’t surprising, as some are narrating. Both the national party and alliance, in fact, kept the road clear for AAP, who already displayed good results during the 2017 assembly election securing 23.7% vote share and 20 seats.
Incompatible Alliances
First, the alliance between BJP and SAD broke, and then Congress made a goof-up creating Siddhu-Amarinder Singh politics of division inside Congress. SAD made an incompatible alliance with BSP, which was sure to fail. Congress’s internal disputes lost credibility among voters.
BJP had no strong footprint in Punjab. Captain Amarinder Singh had little time to organise for his new party and, thus, the road was pretty clear for AAP.
Punjab’s Demography
Some may be confused by my above assertion. Let me explain the characteristic of Punjab polity starting from demography. Many experts divide Punjab into three regions, but I prefer demographic politics because, in my opinion, that’s the real political factor in Punjab polity.
Although Sikhs constitute around 58% of the Punjab population, the influential Jat-Sikhs are around 21–25%. The rest, around 30% of Sikhs, are Dalit-Sikhs. Jat-Sikhs are SAD’s vote bank, whereas Dalits are Congress’s vote bank.
In Punjab, the Hindu population is around 38%. Most of the time, this Hindu population’s vote gets divided between Congress and the BJP-SAD alliance. In fact, in most elections, this Hindu population used to be a tool for change of governments. That means the anti-incumbency effect on this Hindu population is always very high.
The Vote Share
Let’s see the vote share of Congress, BJP-SAD, and AAP during the 2017 assembly election. Congress had 38.5% vote share, AAP 23.7% and NDA had (25.2+5.4) 30.6% vote share. Let’s not go into the number of seats because many a time number of seats create confusion.
Here we must note that Congress lost 1.4% of vote-share, NDA lost (9.4+1.8) 11.2% vote share than that of 2012. NDA’s vote share during the 2012 assembly election was 41.9% despite anti-incumbency. That means SAD was benefited from the Hindu-Jat-Sikh voting block, which amounts to roughly 63% (38%+25%).
Similarly, Congress’s 2017 vote share came from mostly Dalit-Sikhs which are about 28%, and another 10% from others. Congress lost 1.4% vote share in 2017, yet it got a mammoth 77% seats because NDA lost 11.2% vote share. AAP cashed on these lost vote shares and got some other vote share that usually goes to BSP or independents.
Here point must be noted that Jat-Sikhs and Dalit Sikhs are electorally/socially adversaries to each other in Punjab. In 2022 SAD made an alliance with BSP considering the Sikh Dalit vote banks. But as I usually say in my analysis, incompatible alliances don’t work.
Now Congress is in disarray. BJP is not a player. So, where will these voters go? I have analysed in this platform why SP-BSP, Left-Congress, TDP-Congress alliance result in the mass migration of their individual vote banks to possible credible alternatives.
In the 2019 general election, non-Jatav Dalit votes went to BJP in UP. In West Bengal, the individual vote banks of Congress and Left went to TMC and in Telangana, the vote bank of Congress and TDP went to TRS.
Following that example, here in Punjab, the vote bank of BSP went to AAP. Similarly, most Hindu votes which would have supported a SAD-BJP alliance went to AAP. The rest were divided among others.
As of now in the 2022 assembly election, Congress, BJP, SAD and AAP got 23%, 6.6%, 18.4%, and 42% vote share. That means SAD just contained up to the Jat-Sikh voting bloc. Congress got the support of some Sikh Dalits but couldn’t get votes from Hindus and others. BJP also couldn’t get Hindu votes because it has no visibility.
I think I have cleared the air on why AAP got such a huge mandate.
Here also, don’t go by seat numbers. AAPs 92 seats out of 117 with just 42% vote share looks a bit ridiculous. Then as I say, a difference of vote share between parties always matters more than how many votes you get. Here, with even a 42% vote share, AAP got a 19% vote share difference with its nearest rival Congress and that’s the reason for such a tremendous mandate.
Let me prove it from the 2017 assembly election result.
In 2017 Congress lost a vote share of 1.4% from 2012. But the difference between Congress and NDA vote share was around 8% and that’s why Congress got 77 out of 117 seats.
In all my analysis, I always use data on vote share because the number of seats won generally doesn’t depend upon how much vote share a party wins; rather depends upon the difference between vote shares of two top-performing parties or alliances.
I just put a caveat that when vote-shares between two competitors remain within 2%, then the numbers may go either way as Kerala. Karnataka and TN proved repeatedly.
There’s one more point I just want to add for SAD’s electoral understanding apart from the incompatible alliance. The farm agitation was led by Jat-Sikhs only because they hold around 80–95% of lands in Punjab. For a 25% vote bloc (which anyway is SAD’s core vote), it left a sizable Hindu voting bloc of 38%. But then those will be discussed some another day.
I don’t take away the AAP worker’s relentless efforts in this electioneering, but then their sweeping of election is due to Congress’s internal problems, separation among SAD and BJP and incompatible alliance between SAD and BSP.