Amidst global condemnation and new, cascading sanctions, Russia unleashed airstrikes on Ukrainian cities and military bases, while a three-side, attack formation commenced a ground invasion. Thousands of lives are at stake. In this unprecedented scenario, Ukraine implemented martial law in the nation.
As the air raid sirens are blaring frequently in the capital city of Kyiv, several countries have scrambled to protect their own interests. India has its own vested interests on both sides of the border, and is minutely monitoring the situation.
To understand India’s position and the diplomatic dilemma we are in, it’s important to go through the statements made by Indian diplomats, before and after the attack.
Earlier today, in emergency meeting of the UNSC (United Nations’ Security Council), India’s top diplomat at the UN, TS Tirumurti, expressed regret. He also said that the situation is in danger of spiraling into a major crisis. Notably, he didn’t condemn the Russian aggression in an outright manner.
Even when Russia recognised the independence of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, India didn’t condemn these steps.
Later on, when the Russian fighter crafts strategically bombed Ukraine’s capital and nearby areas, and reportedly eliminated Ukrainian air defense power, Ukraine’s ambassador to India, Dr Igor Polikha, released a statement requesting our prime minister, Narendra Modi, to intervene.
The statement read: “I think, in this case, your prime minister can address Mr Putin. He can address our president. Many times in history, India played a peacekeeping role. We are asking for your strong voice to stop this war.”
As the day passed by, a build up of India-Russia conversation took social media by storm. Later in the evening, the PMO (prime minister’s office) released a statement summarising the conversation between PM Modi and Russian president Vladimir Putin.
The statement said that India sensitised Russia regarding its safety concerns, and the return of its citizens stuck in Ukraine. It also said that India appealed for an immediate cessation of violence.
As per the PMO, Putin briefed Modi on the current situation, and India reiterated its long standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) should be solved by dialogue.
Afterwards, in a press conference, when asked if India will stand by the US policy on Russia, American president Joe Biden said that the US is in constant communication with India, and the outcome is yet to be seen.
Now, after being aware of India’s current stand, digging deep into political, strategic and historical ties with both the nations at war, will help us figure out the Indian role if the crisis continues.
India And Russia: Where Do We Stand?
India has always registered its concerns against expansionist policies. PM Modi has stated, time and again, that the expansionist ideology is the biggest threat to world peace.
Having said that, there’s no denying the fact that the Russian “special military operation” is nothing but a move that stems from a purely expansionist approach.
An attempt to gain control of a strategically important land mass is definitely a bigger driving force behind the Russian’s actions, than the will of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Similarly, the current Indian government is very particular about Indian sovereignty, and it strictly discourages any foreign intervention in its internal matters.
But here, the Russian intervention in Donetsk and Luhansk is a clear breach of Ukrainian sovereignty. Policy wise, both these should things push India to take a pro-Ukrainian stand, but hold on!
There’s a lot more to look at. There’s a lot more to balance in this ethical dilemma. It’s a proven fact that for all good reasons, emotions come last in the diplomatic checklist.
The Indo-Russian relationship dates back to the days of the Soviet Union. It’s not hidden that India’s defence infrastructure has a fair share of Russian firepower. From fighter jets to tanks, from ammunition to missiles, from submarines to guns—’Made in Russia’ is stamped on a big portion of the Indian defence hardware.
The navy giant “INS Vikramaditya” (aircraft carrier and flagship) is of Russian origin. Also, the frontline air warrior “Su-30 MKI” also originated in in Putin’s country.
The proposed “AK-203” rifles are to be made in association with Russia. It has also been a long-standing partner of India in many other areas, ranging from nuclear energy to space expeditions.
Though the Russian share in Indian armament trade has seen a slump in recent past, obviously due to India’s will of diversifying its armory and due to its growing self-production capacity, it still stands at a formidable 50%, approximately.
Here, the notable point is, even after an evident degradation in geo-economical terms, and lowering the trade volume, Russia has never done any strategic harm to India.
PM Modi is one of only four foreign leaders to have been awarded with “the order of St Andrew”, Russia’s highest decoration. And, this speaks volumes about the mutual understanding between our two nations.
Also, India will definitely try to stay in Russia’s good books in light of the growing China-Russia relationship. The Indian approach is bound to directly impact Russian strategy in case of confrontation with China.
The strategic, political and economic relationship with Russia, is the reason behind India’s highly-balanced approach in the current crisis.
India And Ukraine: Where Do We Stand?
India’s biggest concern in Ukraine is its 20,000 students and nationals who are stuck there. Many of
them live close to the action zone, and are enrolled in different, Ukrainian medical universities.
India was one of the first countries to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, and Delhi is home to Ukraine’s first mission in Asia. Ukraine is only second to Russia, from the former Soviet Union group of countries, in terms of trade with India.
India exports pharmaceuticals, electrical and electronic equipment, plastic, oil seeds, grain, fruits, seeds and chemical products to Ukraine. India also imports vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products and fertilizers.
Fortune India reported that the “India-Ukraine trade during April-December 2021-’22 touched $2.35 billion, and the bilateral trade for the whole year was expected to be close to the all-time high of $2.73 billion registered in 2018-19.”
Even though India and Ukraine have maintained healthy relations since the fall of the Soviet Union, there are certain incidents which raise eyebrows. One of them is Ukraine’s vote against India after the Indian nuclear test in Pokhran (1974).
All in all, India has no strong reason to go against Ukraine as of now. With a sizeable number of Indians stuck in various parts of Ukraine, India will be the last to wish for further escalation on Ukrainian territory.
Why India Supports De-Escalation
Now, apart from its direct interests, India has multiple reasons to support de-escalation. India’s energy security is a matter of concern as the never-before rise in crude oil prices will definitely hamper India’s growth story.
In 2021, India imported only 1% of its oil and 0.2% of its gas needs from Russia, so the direct supply is not an issue, but the uncontrollable growth in prices that will kick in, is bound to hurt us.
Similarly, if the situation intensifies and the crisis leads to Europe, Germany will curtail gas imports from Russia, and in that case, other providers might shift their supplies to Europe, hampering supplies to Asian countries. Hence, this will inflate gas prices.
If the war-like situation prevails and sanctions on Russia intensifies, India will be faced a choice on taking defence supplies from Russia. Given all these situations, India’s stand of appealing for de-escalation, and expressing regret for what’s happening without taking names, seems justified.
The current crisis has challenged Indian ability to avoid an impact on its economy and future strategies. Without taking sides, this needs careful diplomatic handling, the key to which lies in instant de-escalation.