A few days ago, when Russian troops were amassed around Ukraine, some friends asked me whether it was going to lead to a third world war. My answer was that it won’t lead to a World war. On February 23, 2022, Russia declared that it was going to conduct a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Yesterday, Russia attacked Ukraine. Today, the same friends asked me again about whether we are headed towards a world war. My answer is still negative.
I am going to discuss the background of this conflict, the course ahead and some of the future consequences. But before that, let me clear the air on why this conflict won’t lead to another world war.
Russia may not be able to match up to the US or Europe economically, but it’s very strong militarily. I believe that all the European nations combined together won’t be able to match Russia, militarily. Thus, any European country that tries to intervene militarily, will face devastation caused by Russian military might.
The US can counter Russia, but still, it can’t afford a war with Russia for the simple reason that Russia has the capacity to hit hard, deep inside American territory.
Maybe, at the end of such a war between USA and Russia, the former might win. But, by that time, it would have suffered irreparable losses and causalities. Russia is bound to retaliate with its cutting-edge weaponry tech.
Remember how Iranian revolutionaries held 52 American diplomats and citizens hostage, for 444 days in 1979, and yet, the US was forced to wait helplessly. So, rest assured that there won’t be a war between Russia and the US (or the NATO countries), nor is there any chance of this conflict leading to another world war.
Nowadays, wars are only be waged between strong countries (or alliances) and weaker countries.
Historical Background: Russia And Georgia
What is the background of this conflict and how did it originate? At the moment, most countries blame the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, as being a warmonger.
Some have even called him the present-day Hitler, but if you examine the details, you will find that Russia was forced to take military action. How? Read on!
When the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) disintegrated in 1991, and the Warsaw pact was dissolved in the same year, it marked the end of the cold war. Thus, the relevance of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) should have ceased to exist at that time, or at least, the NATO should not have continued to be a military alliance.
But, that didn’t happen. Instead, the NATO started expanding. During the expansion, it also admitted many former USSR countries like Latvia, Lithuania etc. into its fold. On the other hand, Russia wasn’t made a part of the NATO.
Rather, there was the formation of a Russia-NATO council of sorts, where Russia’s genuine grievances were never heard. Russia had one main concern: the NATO shouldn’t expand itself to reach Russia’s borders because that would be a sure-shot security risk for it.
Georgia, a former USSR country and one of Russia’s neighbours, was lured into becoming a member of the NATO. Georgia was interested in becoming a member too. Russia attacked Georgia in 2008. Its approach then is very similar to that of its present approach to the Ukraine crisis.
First, Russia gave recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two rebel provinces within Georgia. Then, it entered the country with its troops, in the name of sending a peace-keeping force. The NATO, US, and others, vociferously criticised Russia. They also imposed some (toothless) sanctions on Russia.
The Russian force withdrew only after a guarantee by Georgia that it won’t become a part of the NATO, and that Russian majority, rebel areas would be given autonomy.
On NATO Membership And The Present Crisis
In the present case also, Ukraine was desperate to become a member of the NATO, while Russia is obviously against this because it can’t accept the NATO’s entering its backyard.
Just imagine, if China and Mexico enter a military alliance with each other, as a result of which China gets access to Mexico for setting up a military base there, will the US accept this? If not, then why should Russia accept such a state of affairs?
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea (a Russian majority region) as a warning to Ukraine that it shouldn’t pursue a NATO membership. It then gave support to Ukraine’s separatist groups from Donetsk and Luhansk.
In 2014 and 2015, there were treaties named “Minsk-I” and “Minsk-II” to address the issue of rebels from Donetsk and Luhansk. These agreements gave both provinces some autonomous power. Ukraine didn’t honour the agreements and pursued a NATO membership.
The US, in fact, assured Ukraine of a NATO membership despite no unanimity among the NATO members. America also supplied weapons to Ukraine. No major country with the capacity to become a superpower, will ever tolerate another superpower getting access to its backyard.
So, the same routine as Georgia is unfolding now. First, Russia gave recognition to Donetsk and Luhansk. Then, it went in for special military operations at the request of both these rebel provinces of Ukraine. I can predict that Ukraine will surrender in a week’s time.
I have a question for Ukraine: you are neighbour to a superpower, yet, why do you want to bring another superpower to your country’s borders? You will end up as a battlefield for the two superpowers who will decimate Ukraine in the process!
What Does The Future Look Like?
This conflict has emerged because of Ukraine’s foolishness and USA’s misplaced ambition. Former democratic representative in the US, Tulsi Gabbard rightly said that this conflict could have been avoided “had Russia’s concern on Ukraine’s NATO entry been addressed!”
There could be a lot of sanctions imposed on Russia, but practically, those will be toothless, as I believe that Russia has made itself sanction-proof. On the other hand, Europe and America will face an energy crisis and high inflation, which will result in a suicidal, economic disadvantage to both.
If Russia can’t supply gas and oil to Europe, it will sell them to China. Thus, its economy won’t be affected.
What will be the future course of this conflict?
I believe that Ukraine will surrender to Russia. There will be an agreement to the effect of Ukraine remaining pro-Russia and away from the NATO. Both the rebel provinces will get some autonomy and Ukraine won’t be able to purchase weapons from anyone other than Russia.
There will be heavy global, geopolitical consequences because of this conflict. First, the US will lose credibility as an ally. Its intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia etc. has only resulted in chaos.
It’s now been proved that the US couldn’t do anything for Georgia, and it’s not doing enough for Ukraine. Thus, the global order may lean towards China and Russia. The European countries will start re-assessing their alliance with the US.
The most devastating consequence will be that China might invade Taiwan, and no world power will be able to do anything about it. Their weakness has been exposed in the present Ukraine crisis.