In April 2021, US President Biden announced that the US forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. By the end of July 2021, the US administration withdrew about 95% of US armed forces personnel from Afghanistan.
Following this, the Taliban aggravated it’s offensive, leading to the capture of Kabul by the middle of August 2021 (CFR, 2021). In the past, it has been seen that the Taliban extended its operations for Muslim brethren across borders.
Jammu and Kashmir, which has been under the influence of militancy since the late 1980s, is considered another breeding ground for Islamic terrorist networks. Given this brief background, we check whether the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would harm the situation of Kashmir?
We glean through Indian English mainstream media (such as India Today, Hindustan Times, The Times of India, News18, The Indian Express, Business Standard, The Economic Times) published between August 15, 2021, to September 25, 2021, to present our findings.
After the takeover of Afghanistan, top leaders of the Taliban have considered Kashmir as a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. However, India Today (2021) reported that in an exclusive interview to a Pakistani news channel, Taliban Spokesperson Suhail Shaheen clarified that Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan and refused to interfere Kashmir issue.
Similarly, in an exclusive interview with CNN-News18, top Taliban leader Anas Haqqani said that Kashmir is not part of our jurisdiction and any interference is against our policy. We cannot interfere, and this has been made clear several times. Any connection among Haqqani, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba is just propaganda (News 18, 2021).
But a few days after calling Kashmir a bilateral and internal matter, (Ray, 2021) reported that Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen contradicting his statement opined that the Taliban has a right to raise their voices for Muslims all across the world, including in Kashmir.
Amid these remarks, India Today (2021) reported that Pakistan based terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Maulana Masood Azhar met Taliban leaders. This meeting included Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the head of the political commission, to seek help foment terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.
While media was speculating about the impact of the presence of Taliban in Afghanistan on Kashmir, Mohan (2021) writes that US Congressman Michael Waltz raised concerns about the escalation of terror-related violence in Jammu and Kashmir, and there will be Al-Qaeda 3.0.
The Taliban-Lashkar-e-Taiba links will create serious terror issues in Kashmir. Bhat (2021) believes that former Jammu and Kashmir DGP SP Vaid said another 9/11 could be planned in Afghanistan as the Taliban took control of the country.
Pakistan will now shift terror training camps of Jaish and Lashkar from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to Afghanistan to avoid international scrutiny.
Former Director-General of Jammu and Kashmir Police Shesh Paul Vaid (Hindustan Times, 2021) warns that a Taliban takeover will affect Kashmir and all of South Asia. He says that it “will have a psychological influence on all terrorist groups operating all over the world, especially in the Kashmir Valley,” because it has increased their morale.
According to Sharma (2021), a top officer (as reported by NDTV, 2021) stated that terrorist groups’ activities have escalated since the Taliban took control. As many as 60 local teenagers have gone missing, possibly training in various militant camps.
However, some experts believe that the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan will have no impact on Jammu and Kashmir. For example, Beige (2021) writes that Taliban militants may infiltrate the Kashmir valley but will not be able to do much damage.
Mr Javed Beige, the current General Secretary of the People’s Democratic Front of Kashmir, believes this for three reasons. For starters, Kashmir has made significant improvements in defence and social conditions.
Second, Pakistan’s ability to push Taliban militants into Kashmir is next to impossible due to guarding and monitoring along the Line of Control (LoC). Third, the repeal of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution has made all Kashmiris realize the futility of militant action.
According to scholar Victoria Schofield (Hindustan Times, 2021), the situations and movements in Afghanistan and Kashmir are distinct. She reiterates, “We heard about Afghans going to fight and help their Muslim brothers in Kashmir in the past, but I don’t see that happening now… It is not in the Kashmiri psyche to become entangled in the global jihad.”
However, according to Political analyst Noor Ahmad Baba (Mohammed, 2021) of the Central University of Kashmir, Taliban fighters won’t directly come to Kashmir because of the heavy presence of security forces and fencing along the LoC.
The militants who had gone to support or fight alongside could shift their focus to the Valley. But on the other hand, changing regional scenarios might push India and Pakistan to dialogue.
Similarly, Defence expert Pravin Sawhney (Mohammed, 2021), who was formerly with the Indian Army, says the Taliban group is seeking international recognition and has assured China and Russia that it won’t export terror. Wani (2021) says that Pakistan has been disgraced worldwide due to the FATF’s greylisting, which has been in place since June 2018 and has exposed the country’s covert support for international terrorism.
Pakistan, which is already under fire for its conduct, will find it difficult to repeat its deceitful tactics to sow new divisions in the Valley. The creation of a ‘hard-line’ Taliban-Haqqani rule in Kabul, according to Roy-Chaudhary (2021), threatens India’s national security. New Delhi has had no substantial prior contact with the Taliban-Haqqani regime.
He adds that Pakistan’s intelligence agency’s involvement provides safe havens to anti-India terror organizations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is likely to continue, with the prospect of planning and mounting terror operations against India from Afghan territory.
Furthermore, Taliban ideology may encourage Islamic radicalization in India in a way that the so-called Daesh (Islamic State) in Iraq and Syria could not do.
Read my take, on the Taliban’s uncertain politics of self-made sharia which they seek to impose on Afghanistan (under which the state was from 1996-2001), on the official website of “Youth ki Awaaz”. https://t.co/Po0wUfQ1bl
— Mir Tajamul Islam (@mirtajamulislam) August 8, 2021
According to Pandya (2021), Afghanistan is likely to become “Jihad central” under the Taliban regime, as stated by India’s former R&AW chief Vikram Sood. Jihadist groups of all stripes are likely to thrive under the ISI’s protection. AQIS, AQ’s South-Asian affiliate, has been trying to establish a presence in India.
Previously, its affiliated groups such as Indian Mujahidin and SIMI carried out a series of terror attacks before being dismantled by Indian agencies. Furthermore, many top-level leaders of the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) have a Lashkar background and are from Kashmir, providing strong evidence of the party’s ties to the ISI. ISKP also has strong ties with the Haqqanis, ISI’s “veritable arm.”
ISKP has specifically targeted Indian interests in Afghanistan. As a result, they are likely to increase their activity in India.
Pradhan (2021) writes that the warning issued by Douglas London, a former CIA official who served as the CIA’s counterterrorism Chief for South and Southeast Asia from 2016 to 2018 and oversaw operations in Afghanistan, deserves attention.
“Pakistan’s policies of supporting various jihadist groups and the Taliban were all done through the prism of Pakistan-India rivalry,” he said, emphasizing that India has reason to be concerned. They regard your country (India) as an existential threat, and any issue or challenge to them is viewed through that lens.”
This means that the close ties between Taliban factions and Kashmir-specific terrorist outfits have not been severed. In conclusion, one could argue that the Afghanistan takeover by the Taliban will harm Kashmir.
Written with Abhijit Anand, Assistant Prof. (Law), Karnavati University, Gujarat.
References
- Beigh, J. (2021, September 3). OPINION: Will Taliban Militants be Diverted to Kashmir Valley?. News18. Retrieved from https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/opinion-will-taliban-militants-be-diverted-to-kashmir-valley-4158230.html
- Bhat, S. (2021, August 16). Another 9/11 possible from Afghanistan, Taliban will embolden terrorists in Kashmir: Former J&K DGP. India Today. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/afghanistan-taliban-takeover-jammu-kashmir-terrorism-sp-vaid-pakistan-1841529-2021-08-16
- EXCLUSIVE | Haqqani Network Scion Anas Haqqani Says Taliban Won’t ‘Interfere’ in Kashmir, Clarifies Pakistan Connection. (2021, September 1). News18. Retrieved from https://www.news18.com/news/world/exclusive-talibans-anas-haqqani-says-wont-interfere-in-kashmir-clarifies-pakistan-connection-4150346.html
- How will the Taliban takeover impact militancy in Kashmir? Here’s what analysts say. (2021, September 10). Hindustan Times. Retrieved from https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/how-will-the-taliban-takeover-impact-militancy-in-kashmir-here-s-what-analysts-say-101631244581049.html
- Jaish-e-Mohammed chief meets Taliban leadership seeks ‘help’ in Kashmir: Sources. (2021, August 27). India Today. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/jaish-e-mohammed-chief-meets-taliban-leadership-seeks-help-in-kashmir-sources-1846167-2021-08-27
- Mohammed M. (2021, August 29). Why Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan might not affect Kashmir. India Today. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-taliban-s-takeover-of-afghanistan-might-not-affect-kashmir-1846789-2021-08-29
- Mohan, G. (2021, September 10). Taliban-LeT links will create serious terror issues in Kashmir: US Congressman | Exclusive. India Today. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/taliban-let-links-serious-terror-issues-kashmir-us-congressman-michael-waltz-1851586-2021-09-10
- Pandya, A. (2021, September 15). View: Taliban 2.0 and India’s security challenges. Retrieved from The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/view-taliban-2-0-and-indias-security-challenges/articleshow/86229208.cms?from=mdr
- Pradhan, SD. (2021, Septemebr 6). Taliban controls Afghanistan: Security implications for India. The Times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/ChanakyaCode/taliban-controls-afghanistan-security-implications-for-india/
- Ray, M. (2021, September 3). Days after bilateral issue comment, Taliban’s new remarks about Kashmir. Hindustan Times. Retrieved from https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/days-after-bilateral-issue-comment-taliban-s-new-remarks-about-kashmir-101630650481173.html
- Roy Chaudhary, R. (2021, September 21). How the Fall of Kabul Impacts India’s Regional Security and Indo-Pacific Diplomacy. The Wire. Retrieved from https://thewire.in/diplomacy/aukus-afghanistan-us-india-pakistan-taliban
- Sharma, N. (2021, August 30). Amid Taliban Takeover Of Afghanistan, A Worrying Trend In J&K. NDTV. Retrieved from https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/in-jammu-and-kashmir-terror-attacks-rise-as-us-pulls-out-of-afghanistan-2523827
- Taliban refuse to interfere in Kashmir issue between India, Pakistan. (2021, September 8). India Today. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/world/video/taliban-refuse-interfere-kashmir-issue-india-pakistan-1850385-2021-09-08
- Wani, A. (2021, August 30). Resurgent Taliban and its implications on Kashmir. ORF. Retrieved from https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/resurgent-taliban-and-its-implications-on-kashmir/
- War in Afghanistan. (2021, December 17). CFR. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-afghanistan
Web-Sources