There are a lot of opinion polls till now on the upcoming UP assembly election 2022. These opinion polls predict an NDA majority giving it a 40-41% vote share. On the other hand, SP is likely to remain distant second with a 24-33% vote share as per C-voter.
Recently a Times Now opinion poll suggested that BJP will retain the majority although SP will improve its tally. Some experts also speculate that there will be a two-way contest between BJP and SP as BSP and Congress would be reduced to minor parties.
Many also started speculating that SP is catching up with BJP and may unseat Yogi Adityanath as there’s an exodus of ministers and MLAs from BJP to SP. This speculation also gives the required strike rate for SP to snatch the percentage of vote shares from BJP apart from BSP and Congress.
Then there’s a lot of talk on issues going against the BJP. Such as farm agitation, The Lakhimpur Kheri incident, inflation, unemployment, Covid, and other issues. However, many think that BJP will benefit from Hindutva issues such as Ram temple, Kashi Biswanath, Mathura, etc.
So like every time, there appears to be a complication to knowing who to win the election. Will BJP retain power? Will Akhilesh Yadav win its second term? Will BSP and Congress head to oblivion it UP polity?
My answer is simple. The issues of inflation, unemployment and even farmers’ agitation have no impact on politics like UP. Irrespective of an opinion poll’s modes, the only thing that matters is a demographic equation.
It’s about caste and religious vote bank politics in UP. Even among castes, there are friction points. Thus, in a changed scenario, a better understanding of the caste equation can help understand which party is standing in these upcoming elections.
How caste equations work in UP is detailed in the article authored by me and published on this platform on 26th June 2019. You can have a detailed account of how the caste equation works by reading through that article again. Finally, I will demonstrate how the demographic equation will impact the upcoming UP assembly election 2022.
The demographic divide of UP is compiled in the table below. There are a lot of statistics on demography. However, I tabulated this from ‘Demography Wikipedia’.
If we go through the election history of the UP Assembly, we will find that Congress ruled the state from 1952 to 1974 and in 1985 getting majority on its own. Janata Party won a majority in 1977, and Janata Dal (split from Janata Party) earned the majority in 1989.
Riding on Ram temple agitation, BJP won the majority in the 1991 assembly election. After the Babri demolition happened, the SP party formed out of Janata Dal. BSP has also started growing since its formation in 1989.
The entire polity was divided. Muslims remained anti-BJP. BSP got most of the SC votes. SP harped on most of the OBC votes, especially the Yadav votes. Most forward classes remained with BJP.
The problem with UP polity is that any two castes or religion combination doesn’t work. For example, the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination counts for 27.26% yet is not effective in getting several seats for the simple reason that Muslims primarily reside in western UP whereas Yadav mostly resides in Eastern UP.
The same is the situation in DM combination counts for around 39%, yet because of a different area of domination, they couldn’t generate a majority combinedly. That’s why from the 1993 to 2007 election, the results always ended up in hung assembly and governments formed as per post-poll alliances.
Gradually the Muslim vote pattern changed, and they started voting to anti-BJP parties where the party’s dominant vote bank is available. So, for example, if a constituency has chief SC votes, Muslims supported BSP, Yadav vote-banks supported SP, etc.
In 2007, BSP allied with forward-castes. So the equation of Dalit, Muslim, and forward class helped BSP gain a majority with a 30.43% vote share. BJP reduced to 16.97% vote share while keeping the Yadav vote banks intact and some other non-Yadav votes. SP got a vote share of 25.43%. Congress reduced to 8.61% vote share.
Taking a cue from BSP, SP this time focused on forward-caste and nearly snatched it from BSP in the 2012 election. As a result, SP got a majority with 29.15% vote share while BSP reduced to 25.91% vote share losing the election. On the other hand, BJP lost some 2% more vote share and got just 15%, whereas Congress increased its vote share up to 11.61%, reaching some SC votes back from Congress.
During 2014 and 2017, there was a change of mood in caste politics. Before that, note that OBC and SC communities are incompatible for historical reasons. After the formation of BSP and SP, neither the SC community votes for SP nor the OBC community ever votes for BSP.
That remains an issue for which the SP-BSP alliance couldn’t succeed in the 2019 general election. You can’t just add the vote banks because top leaders decided to ally.
What happened in 2014? The Jatav community became dominant during Mayawati’s tenure as Mayawati belonged to the same community. Thus, in the non-Jatav community, 11% of the population searched for alternatives.
They can’t go to SP; thus, the option was limited between BJP and Congress. However, as BJP was the ascending party, they rallied behind BJP. Similarly, during Akhilesh Yadav’s rule, the Yadav community became dominant, and other OBC communities felt discriminated against.
They couldn’t go to BSP. Congress appeared weak and thus rallied behind BJP. The same continued till the 2019 general election.
Now, what will happen in 2022? The non-Jatav Dalits won’t go to SP, and Congress doesn’t show any potential. Moreover, BSP is also giving signs of weakness. Thus despite anti-incumbency, they are likely to remain with BJP. Non-Yadav OBCs can’t go to BSP and won’t go to Congress.
Some definitely will return to the SP fold because of the anti-incumbency of the government. The issue with non-Yadav OBC is that many of them are supporters of the Ram temple movement. So, they will remain with BJP. The forward-class is not leaving the BJP at this moment.
Also, as BSP and Congress are at the lowest point, I don’t think SP could get more vote banks from BSP or Congress. So that means SP has to snatch at least 15% OBC votes from BJP. That looks improbable.
In conclusion, I would say that the BJP will retain power. Whether it will get a simple majority or a bumper majority would depend on how BJP performed at booth level. BJP has only one issue that many supporters of BJP are not regular voters.
Many wish for BJP’s win but won’t go to the booth for casting self-vote. But, if that happens on a large scale, BJP will be the largest party because of demographic advantage.
What do you say?