Water will be one of the critical drivers of peace and stability in South Asia in the second decade of the 21st century. If the first decade of the new millennium was shaped by terrorism, the next two decades (2010–2030) will witness issues around water dominating internal and external policies of countries, especially in South Asia, where the freshwater crisis is brewing with great intensity.
It is estimated that by 2030, only 60% of the world’s population will have access to fresh water supplies. This would mean that about 3 billion people would be without a reliable water source and most of them would live in impoverished, conflict-prone and water-stressed areas like South Asia.
Climate Change And The Future Of Water Security In South Asia
It is imperative to have a policy formulation and discussion on such a scarce and depleted resource. In light of this, as a part of The State of the Environment – #PlanetTalks, IMPRI Center for Environment, Climate Change and Sustainable Development (CECCSD) and Impact and Policy Research Institute, New Delhi, organised a distinguished lecture by Prof Scott Moore on Climate Change and the Future of Water Security in South Asia on 20 September, 2021.
The speaker of the session was Prof Scott Moore, a political scientist whose work focuses on water politics and policy, especially in China and South Asia.
The discussants included Dr Ranjana Roy, a faculty in the Department of Regional Water Studies at the TERI School of Advanced Studies (TERI SAS), New Delhi, India and Dr Indira Khurana, the vice-chair at Tarun Bharat Sangh, Alwar, and director at Coastal Salinity Prevention Cell.
Shifting And Shrinking: The World’s Water Resources
How bad is India’s water crisis? These photos from various villages may give you an idea: https://t.co/pXxRcl2PlQ #InDeepShit #worldwaterday pic.twitter.com/W8WSt7rRkM
— Youth Ki Awaaz (@YouthKiAwaaz) March 22, 2017
Prof Scott Moore initiated the discussion by emphasising the impact of climate change in international relations between South Asian nations in these dimensions: Social, Economic and Political. Besides this, he also took attention to the regional effects of climate change and water scarcity and its dimensions.
He focused on shifting and shrinking of the world’s water resources in South Asian countries by presenting a thematic map of how water resources are shifting in South Asian regions. His analysis of the map followed the regional impact of water shrinkage and shifting.
He also emphasised the depletion of groundwater resources in specific areas of the world map. The depletion of groundwater resources occurs mostly in the northeast India and Pakistan region.
Groundwater shrinkage refers to excessive water intake compared to the replenishment capacity of the groundwater aquifers. It is overdrawing of groundwater resources. He also presented the warning signs of depletion of water resources in the South Asian region.
Melting Of The Third Pole
Prof Scott Moore then continued with the melting of the third pole glaciers as the major fallout of climate change in the South Asian region. The great glacial melt has played a major role in the melting of the third pole. Then he emphasised the growing risk of GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) on glacial melt and, thus, climate change in the region.
He also emphasised uncertainties that occur due to climate changes.
Warning Signs
He then elucidated the growing tensions in the roof of the world, i.e. India and Bangladesh, due to scarcity of water resources. There are also dangerous misconceptions about the spatial distribution of rainfall in the region.
Then he presented the facts on South Asian relations. Inquisitively, the Indus Treaty was a one-sided affair as due to it, Pakistan gets 80% of the water in the six-river Indus systems. Also, it is the only pact compelling upper riparian states to defer to the interests of downstream states.
Rethinking the treaty would cause international condemnation and flooding in our cities as countries with water-sharing arrangements with India would become uneasy. So, it’s a kind of pillar under pressure.
Rising Tensions On The Roof Of The World
Further, he deliberated on the political weaponisation of water. The reference of Telangana CM was mentioned. AP government had “taken a vow to destroy farmers in Telangana”. Then, the Telangana Irrigation minister also replied in a political way. Also, Maharashtra WR Minister points out, “Our farmers suffering from a severe drought have not been able to get water because of the approach Telangana has taken”.
This suggests the political downplay on water resources and the political weaponisation plays a key role in relations, not only within the state but also outside connected regions. The political emphasis has downplayed the goal of the constitution of maintaining integrity and sovereignty. Both aspects are ignored by states, and coordination and cooperation have been the downpour.
This suggests the overuse of resources and their depletion leads to the instinct of self-sufficiency.
Dr Indira Khurana emphasised India’s mismanagement of water resources and increasing burgeoning climate change. She said that there are a lot of aspects to it like humanitarian, etc. This would shrink the resources we are left with. She emphasised the need for development in science and technology to leverage climate change.
She also expressed her views on the mismanagement of groundwater resources and concluded by expressing how we should look on to manage resources for the nation’s sustainable development.
Dr Ranjana Ray Chaudhari emphasised getting solutions and a policy to replenish the groundwater resources. She also questioned the lack of awareness to recharge and conserve groundwater resources. She also stressed that river Krishna didn’t have water left. There has been a spurred demand in the canal system of this river that has exhausted Krishna’s water.
She highlighted the twin challenges faced by the Telangana region in water scarcity and water salinity.
Prof Scott Moore concluded by grasping the need of having energy resources and energy storage with renewable solar energy as the progressive demand.
Acknowledgement: Vaibhav Aggarwal is a Research Intern at IMPRI.