Six months ago, even anti-Congress people were confident that Congress would retain Punjab in the upcoming 2021 assembly election. But now, even staunch Congress supporters are sure that Congress will lose the election. Some even fear complete decimation.
Some days, ago Congress leader Randeep Surjewalla scoffed at BJP for changing five Chief Ministers in 6 months. Three CMs in Uttarakhand, one each in Karnataka and Gujarat. To add to this, Himanta Biswa Sarma will make number six because incumbent Sarbananda Sonowal retained power yet wasn’t made CM.
Then comes Gujarat, where the entire cabinet changed. Did you hear any public dissent? What happened to Congress then. Is Congress really heading to oblivion? Let’s discuss.
It’s Captain Amarinder Singh who won the 2016 assembly election against the so-called Modi wave. Even in 2019, it’s the Captain who was able to prevent the Modi magic in Punjab. Yet, Navjot Sidhu was propped as a challenger to Captain.
Had the Congress leader discussed with the Captain for a graceful exit, I don’t think he would have persisted on the CM’s post. But he was humiliated through Sidhu. Just imagine, Sidhu is able to talk and meet the Gandhis, but the Captain waits for days in Delhi and can’t meet them.
Why? The reason is simple—the feud between the Captain and Rahul Gandhi. The Punjab election win was credited to Amarinder Singh and all other defeats credited to Rahul Gandhi. As high command, Rahul Gandhi shouldn’t make it an ego issue. But he did and the Punjab congress suffered internal factionalism in Punjab.
Soon Sidhu was made PCC chief and Channi was made CM. A couple of days ago, Sidhu resigned as PCC chief and Congress is now in deep trouble.
It’s not only in Punjab; there’s factionalism in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. Recently Ashok Gehlot said that he had the support of 100 MLAs. The intention was clear, Rahul Gandhi was meeting Sachin Pilot, which made the Gehlot camp concerned.
Similarly, Bhupesh Baghel was in Delhi with his supporters to save his chair. Whatever happens in these periods, one thing is clear, Congress will lose all assembly polls due in 2021 since the high command is short-sighted and high-handed when dealing with the organisational issues.
After 18 years in politics, Rahul Gandhi is yet to understand that personal charisma doesn’t win elections. It’s the organisation of the party which wins you an election. For BJP, Narendra Modi’s charisma might attract a 5%–7% vote share, but it’s the party that does the groundwork to bring BJP to this position.
Either Rahul Gandhi is incompetent or he has the wrong coterie. Simply bashing Modi won’t make you win the election. It’s the organisation that will make you win. I don’t know if it is too late for Rahul Gandhi to understand this.
This is a vital time for Congress leadership as TMC has started entering Congress’ space and I won’t be surprised if they cede all the Hindi heartland space to TMC. The TMC already accommodated ex Goa CM and MP Abhishek Banerjee, who openly said that TMC would be proactive if Congress didn’t quit their armchair politics.
The so-called G-23 and even Captain Amarinder Singh may join TMC because many disgruntled Congress mass leaders, who are anti-BJP, would find TMC a better place to do their politics. A mass leader always goes with his ground-level worker. Can Rahul Gandhi, who couldn’t save his Amethi constituency, save Congress?
So, the present question is not who will win the upcoming assembly elections; rather, the question at this point is whether Congress can survive as a pan-national party by the 2024 general election.
The way I see it, if Congress’s high command doesn’t take urgent and mature steps to revive the party through organisational reforms, TMC might be a competitor to BJP in the Hindi heartland in 2024.
Am I wrong in my reading?