With the decline of the US as the ‘by-default’ global power and the rise of the ‘hegemonic China’, the era of ‘relative certainty’ in global politics is on its death bed and is paving the way for an ‘absolute chaos’. As has been rightly pointed out by several scholars, the retreat of the US from the stage of world power did not happen at the drop of a hat. Instead, it is only an outcome of what has been transpiring for several for several years and under several Presidents of all hue and colour! Biden’s beating a hasty retreat over the issue of Afghanistan is only its ‘CNN moment’. The critical question before the mid-powers or the allies of the USA now is about how to shape their strategic policies amid the chaos and where to keep the US in their larger scheme of things. Under such circumstances, the allies can only draw solace from singing ‘Oh Captain! My Captain’, a famous metaphor poem by Walt Whitman dedicated to the death of Abraham Lincoln as the captain (US) for the allies too has now gone.
Chinese assertiveness is a threat for all countries in general and those subscribing to the values of democracy, liberalism and rule-based world order in particular. Countries in the Indo-Pacific region are sceptic about the freedom of navigation that would come under great threat if Chinese hyper-activeness is not arrested at the earliest, as they have seen Chinese attitude over its dispute in South China Sea. Band-wagoning for them seems to be the only feasible option at this point of time and therefore there isn’t any wonder that groups like Quad and AUKUS have come up to prevent the Chinese from getting a free run. How successful these experiments will be in accomplishing their core objective will only be known in the future but what is certain that countries are realizing that challenging the status-quo or the inertia is their Hobson’s choice.
As far as India is concerned, it is the only country to share a land boundary with China among the members of Quad as well as AUKUS and is also the sole power in the region that has both economic and military might to challenge the Chinese assertiveness. Our dispute with China is not merely about some physical area but also about a structural ideology. China understands and acknowledges it very well. And therefore, apart from utilising its armed infrastructure against us like the recent clash in Galwan Valley, it is also greatly utilising its (dis)informational apparatus against us through paid and fake news, ideological indoctrination and funds to think tanks and media houses to tarnish India’s image globally.
Several states have been looking towards India to take the leadership role against China but the country seems reluctant for more than one factors. The much touted QUAD, which is being made to look like a ‘one-stop solution’ to Chinese problem of India is, and will remain only a ‘deliberative forum of the highest level’ until and unless the element and dimension of military and strategic co-operation is not added to it, something like the recently formed alliance between Australia, United States and United Kingdom, the AUKUS. India’s pre-eminence in the Indian ocean, a region which controls a substantial part of global trade route, can only be harnessed most judiciously if it is complimented by the navies of other members of Quad. It would also boost the confidence of small states that are willing to counter China, but till now have prevented themselves from doing so in the want of a concrete forum to act as their backup. Admitted, such alliance system has never been a part of Indian strategic thinking of the foreign policy elites earlier. But then, there were never such circumstances earlier either! Therefore, desperate times call for desperate measures. Sticking to what we had been doing will only lead to where we had been going. Albert Einstein has said “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” We cannot afford to be insane at any point of time!