The impact of the coronavirus on the global economy will certainly be profound, long-term and possibly more damaging to some problems. The coronavirus experience is one of the biggest shocks produced at the moment, as daily economic activity is so large that nations have changed on an unprecedented scale with an area of about 2,100 countries and territories in peacetime.
The 21st century is a century of small and large crises that did not exist in the last century or did not affect the world in this way. The financial crisis of 2008, the oil war or the attack on the countries’ oil facilities, and finally, the pandemic as well as the forecast for global economic growth has progressed and bears consequences.
Given the revisions of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the pandemic’s financial and psychological performance has not been worse than the crisis. This decision is not only economic; healthcare, medicine and cultural systems of the countries are also changing. It must be acknowledged that the pandemic had impacted the time and focus of decision-making.
Under these circumstances, and taking into account the political economy of countries, the two most important choices are prevention of Crohn’s disease by monitoring compliance with a long-term plan to reduce the damage to the economy in the face of sudden crises or short-term proposals, and providing immediate prescriptions.
In this regard, taking the global economy as a whole, the future of the world after the coronavirus depends on the decisions of countries to adopt health policies. Thus, there are two scenarios for a country and they are true for the future of the global economy: i.e. scenario “U-shaped” or “Tick-shaped”.
After examining the dangers and effects of Covid on the world, a question must be answered: what will the form of global change look like? The World Economic Forum proposed two scenarios, u-shaped and tick-shaped, for this question, which almost all economists and experts are working on. The U-shape of the world economy before, during and after Covid follows a classical pattern that has a minimum and a worst case scenario for an economy. But over time, economies are rapidly recovering.
In a report, Steve Rick, chief economist at the CUNA Study Group, said in a report that March 2020 saw the worst market and economic downturns, and that the recovery process would only accelerate by the end of 2020. Although economists believe that the return to the top is related to various factors such as consumer assistance, various incentives for businesses and post-coronary law in general, the second group of strategists and economists consider the second wave of Covid to be the most important obstacle to the most optimistic scenario.
This group considers the tick-shaped scenario to be the most realistic scenario for a post-Covid world. According to them, although this scenario depends on monetary and fiscal policies, it shows that businesses need a long period of recovery. It is within this time that they can return to their former flexibility. In this scenario, reaching an acceptable level may take until 2022. It remains to be seen which policy economies will choose “with or without each other.”