Here’s Why I Think Tejashwi Yadav Might Win The Bihar Assembly Elections 2020

Bihar Assembly Elections have always been unpredictable and uncertain, but what can be said bluntly is that Bihar elections are heavily caste-based. Having said that, the winning of a certain party is based on the flawless distribution of tickets. The politics of Bihar has been a bone of contention for long. After the last assembly elections of 2015, there was a lot of shift and turn when the alliance of RJD and JDU came to an end and JDU and BJP together made government. This was something distinctive that was observed in the past 5 years politics of Bihar.

Now if we talk about the current situation of assembly elections, considering the general public’s survey-based opinion, the first and foremost thing that comes in this COVID-19 situation is that the voter turnout will be less as compared to an average fall of votes. The public in urban areas, as well as the upper caste and educated people, might avoid going to vote.

I think that the BJP and JDU will face a major problem due to this but as it is rightly said “Nothing is Particular” but still it is the assumption which comes from public surveys and a layman common sense which holds water. Another myth that is being busted is that the Muslim and Yadavs are core voters of the RJD. However, I think that the data seems to narrate a different version where it is evident that the NDA has the support of 25-30% of the voters from these communities which could possibly be because of Shri Nitish Kumar’s pro-Muslim policy where you can see that his government has taken several initiatives that have benefitted the Muslims in the last decade.

In this assembly elections of Bihar, BJP and JDU have not been seen campaigning aggressively and coming on the ground and there is a lot of delay in this matter. Having said that, BJP has always been up to the mark in the campaign game. Although Prime Minister Shri. Narendra Modi is coming for the campaign from 23rd of October which can be the accelerator for BJP, it will give rise to another contention that the Prime Minister of one of the most celebrated nations is taking up rallies and addressing crowds in this pandemic situation.

The propaganda that BJP is helping LJP from the back end can be a disadvantage for BJP in the context of making Gathbandhan Government with JDU. One more aspect which is highlighted is that the BJP is not involving itself in Anti communist party campaigns which is also a different scenario in these assembly elections.

This Assembly Elections, the RJD manifesto clause of ensuring 10 lakh jobs to the youth is creating a hype but it is being criticized too by the educated class. The legitimate argument is that how will the jobs be created when there’s no roadmap that has been shared until now? The people in rural areas have high hopes of getting jobs and they are building on that trust. Further, RJD has an upper hand in getting more seats because, in the pandemic situation, many rural areas people returned from Metropolitan Cities like Delhi and Mumbai.

Getting a young face for Chief Minister contendership might help RJD because that would satisfy the youth of Bihar. I feel that there will be a good voting turnout from the youth this time because of the COVID-19 situation. Since old and aged might avoid stepping out, maybe RJD took the right step by collaborating with left parties because a lot of youth are also influenced by that ideology. They relate to that role model because their good stand for communism for Pan India is itself from Bihar.

Bihar has a good young population and RJD has struck that right cord by prioritizing youth in this election right from poll promises to campaign messages and management. If you look at any RJD rallies, you would observe all young faces on stage taking charge, whereas the scenario is exactly opposite with the NDA rallies where you see all less energetic and older people taking charge, which leads to less connection with the youth.

Also, if you observe closely you would notice that RJD has smartly got rid of Shri Lalu Yadav from all its posters and campaign material to ensure a clean youth image for the party which is also echoing with the youth voters of the state. No matter what the result of the election is, RJD post the election will be Tejashwi’s RJD with very little traces of Lalu Yadav. He might lose or win the election, but he has won his party completely.

The other important clause in this election is about the female vote bank. I think that there have been glimpses of patriarchy in Lalu Yadav Ji’s past governance which would be opposed by many women of the state. The immature speeches and irrational approach of Tej Pratap Yadav might also act as a hurdle for RJD to gain seats.

LJP, JAAP and Congress will also play a role in this election because they will be acting as catalysts in ensuring whose government will be ruling for the next 5 years. LJP in itself might not have a big role to play but it can influence the constituency in which BJP has cut down the tickets of rebellion leaders. Most probably, there is almost no chance of LJP winning 2 digit seats. Plurals and Independent will have a minute role to play too in this election but they cannot be tagged as a government deciding factor.