We live in an uncertain world. Time has once again proved that humans cannot predict the future. The uncertainties always prevail and humans have to abide by them. Though they can act retrospectively to find certain solutions (and sometimes, proactively too), but there will always remain numerous situations in which humans will be clueless.
This can be proved with the help of two situations prevailing today — first, the Covid-19 pandemic, and second, the global geopolitical situation.
Covid-19 And Uncertainty
Till a few months ago, who could have thought that there can be a virus (invisible to the naked eye) that can bring the whole world to a standstill and directly challenge all the medical advancement of the 20th and the 21st century. This virus has taught humans that despite all the technological advancement, there can still arise a situation that can force them to kneel down to nature.
During the virus’ initial outbreak, you and I had no idea about what this virus is capable of. We used to think that so many hue and cries around the virus were due to factors like the vested interest of pharmaceutical companies or due to the increased accessibility of social media that was responsible for spreading hoax to a great extent.
But the reality is in front of us. Today, world powers including the USA, the UK, Europe, India, and Russia are battling the virus. Global financial institutions forecast that the post-Covid economic slowdown, in no manner, is less than the Great Economic Depression. Global economic reports of 2020 forecast a 5.2% contraction in the global GDP. Every sector of the economy as well as society has been affected drastically. People have been displaced in numbers like never before. The case in point is the migrant crisis across India.
For the last 3-4 months, we all have been staying in the shadow of a single word, “corona”. All government machinery from regulatory bodies to law enforcement agencies are on-ground duty, day and night, to curb the transmission of the virus. Yet, we are far from having any long-term solution. There have been trials to find a vaccine and some are very close to success, like Oxford’s Covid vaccine and India’s own Covaxin. These vaccines will certainly be there to save the human race, as humans are good in taking reactive measures than becoming proactive.
But the point remains the same; the ability of humans to predict future and their claim of superiority vis-à-vis nature remains challenged!
Geopolitics And Uncertainty
A few years ago, we also witnessed a common discourse that the role of the armed forces has been reduced to humanitarian assistance and border patrolling and “war-like” situations are no more practical. But then, we came across situations like the Pathankot, Uri and Pulwama terror attacks and counter surgical strikes. Even experts were of the view that modern warfare has marked a clear departure from the conventional ones. New domains of cyber, space and economic warfare have emerged. But then, we have the “Brutal Galwan Clash”; soldiers fighting hand-to-hand, using primitive tools like iron clubs and stones, leading to a large number of casualties on both sides.
The India-China clash is not an exception to uncertainties prevailing worldwide — be it Israel’s recent plan to annex West Bank or piling up of nuclear arsenal by countries like Iran and North Korea. Recently, the USA moved its aircraft carriers to the already-disputed South China Sea in the name of “ensuring free navigation in open seas.”
There have been conspiracy theories of the coronavirus being deliberately spread as a means of biological warfare. Such a claim must be investigated because spreading a virus for personal gains has been done in the past too. Here again, some questions remain unanswered: like what is the utility of multilateral export control regimes? Are multilateral institutions really working for the interest of all the members? And ultimately, what has happened to human conscience?
Illusion Of Progression
Today, we stand as a result of the evolution of the human species over millions of years — from the early men living in the caves to inventing fire and now to today’s men inventing and developing robots, space crafts, satellites, medicines, supercomputers and new energy sources. But is this evolution sustainable?
Now, we have several reports and adequate data proving that inequality is on the rise, climate change is a reality, weather patterns are being disturbed, and the intensity of hazards is increasing. Moreover, when the world tries to cope up, incidents like the coronavirus pandemic and the Galwan attack occur, forcing one to think about the illusion of progression.
What do you think? Have we really progressed when a small virus coronavirus is enough to remind us of the times of plague that left millions of people dead, leaving behind inadequate medical services to deal with, and humans living in a continuous threat of breathing outside their homes? Have we really progressed when Galwan reminds us of the tribal wars that used to be fought for land with primitive tools to brutally kill one another? Are we really moving forward?
Here, we wish not to sound so critical and pessimistic. We are aware of the positives as well, which came along with such a crisis situation, in the form of dedicated services by the health personnel, soldiers, policemen, civil society, sanitation workers and many of us who are helping fellow humans financially and motivating them by recognising their efforts.
But still, we cannot deny that today, we are presented with a time and situation where we need to pause and think about the speed, direction and nature of the world we want to leave for our future generations.
However, the bigger question remains, “Can humans predict the future and claim that they have progressed?” One single event can alter the entire course of history as well as future, and we must keep this in mind.