The Rajya Sabha passed the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill, 2019 by a two-third majority (125-61) after it passed the resolution regarding Article 370. Many are referring to the resolution as scrapping or revoking Article 370. However, Article 370 isn’t revoked, rather the clauses of Article 370 have been used to make other clauses of this article inoperative.
“The Presidential order used a clause of Article 370 to say that provisions of Article 370 would no longer be applicable in Jammu and Kashmir, a move that essentially revokes the article without actually doing so.” The bill is now in the Lok Sabha for debate and adoption.
In the meantime, Pakistan rejected the government of India’s move to end special privileges to Jammu and Kashmir and the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories. It is conducting a joint session to discuss the matter whereas Pakistan’s Chief of Army also called for a core commander meeting to discuss Kashmir. Many are wondering as to how Pakistan will respond to the Indian government’s Article 370 stunner.
The first action for Pakistan would be to raise this issue internationally. However, the USA gave a cautious remark that it is closely observing the development whereas it noted that Indian government’s point as a strictly internal matter as reported in the Pakistani newspaper Dawn. Even Dawn’s Editorial itself was apprehending that the world community is indifferent to the Kashmir issue. Clearly, the way the Modi government played their cards, I don’t think the international media would take any note of Pakistan’s desperate attempt for mediation by the international community including the USA.
Thus, what would be the next way ahead for Pakistan? Will it go for war against India?
The answer isn’t so simple. Pakistan’s financial condition ensures it can’t afford a war, but if the Pakistani army wants, it can escalate the confrontation to such a level that could bring international attention especially when both India and Pakistan are nuclear-capable states. But then there are some issues Pakistan needs to think of.
First, the government of India under Narendra Modi would retaliate severely should any friction/confrontation/skirmish be imposed, especially on the Kashmir issue. Till the international community intervene, Indian forces have the capability of recovering PoK. At that point, even if a ceasefire happens, India would welcome it. Even the people of PoK are expressing an anti-Pakistan sentiment.
Second, Pakistan itself is imploding as its provinces are up in arms for independence from Islamabad because of the non-adherence of the 1940 Pakistan resolution. Otherwise called the Lahore declaration, it was promised that all provinces will be independent sovereign countries and together with they will be called the united states of Pakistan.
But Islamabad didn’t keep its promise, rather all provinces were made subservient to the Punjab province. Sindh, Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, FATA and even PoK are demanding independence. Zulfiqar Shah, a Sindh-Baluchistan activist and a writer clearly mentions that in Pakistan, at this point, all roads lead to the 1940 Lahore Declaration or the collapse.
Thus, the question is whether Pakistan will take such a risk? Already it lost East Pakistan in 1971. In such a juncture, will Pakistan dare to do something which ultimately implodes Pakistan and divides it into several parts? The timing of the Indian government’s decision can be noted because they have factored possible reactions, adventures and misadventures on Pakistan’s part. Frankly, India is ahead of Pakistan in mobilising the support of the international community, especially when it is making changes in an internal matter to curb terrorism.
Here, one interesting matter is to be noted. Former High Commissioner of Pakistan, Abdul Basit revealed that in 2014, Ram Madhav of BJP intimated him that Article 370 and 35(A) will be revoked and at the same time PoK could also be under siege. That’s why according to Abdul Basit, Narendra Modi’s mediation request to Trump might be about PoK and not for J&K.
My conclusion is simple, that at the moment Pakistan is struggling internally. Thus, any misadventure against India would be catastrophic for Pakistan itself. Thus, Pakistan may intensify the proxy war but I don’t think any open confrontation at the moment should be expected. The only caveat in my conclusion that whenever there’s distress, sometimes Pakistan unites in the name of Kashmir, and that may motivate the Pakistani army for a misadventure, of course at its own peril.