Starting with a tumultuous and rocky period during June last year when two men claimed to be the Prime Minister of the country leading to a rather embarrassing leadership crisis that lasted roughly 51 days, a series of terror attacks that shook the country and the world, Sri Lanka is yet again headed into another political controversy that is being seen by many as a question on its sovereignty.
At the heart of the matter is a military cooperation pact with the United States. Formerly existing, Status of Forces Act, signed in 1995, or SOFA’s terms and conditions will essentially be renegotiated. The talks are ongoing, but President Srisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe who have a long-standing history of differing opinions on almost all state matters and bad blood between them have only added to the confusion by taking contrasting stands.
What Does The SOFA Really Mean For The Two Countries?
The US has close to 100 such agreements with other countries that are similar to the one they have yet to finalise with Sri Lanka. They essentially dictate the US military personnel’s code of conduct on foreign soil in accordance with existing laws of that particular country and concessions, if any at all, that are granted to them. Sri Lanka though has some concerns. There are many that see this agreement as a rather threatening presence of US troops on Sri Lankan soil moving in to set camp at strategic ports and other locations and compromising Sri Lankan sovereignty. This is also what President Srisena has gone on record to say at a Cabinet meeting. The US has however dismissed any fears of such sort and given assurance that the agreement will not be used to procure any military bases. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has alleviated such concerns in the Parliament himself and given support to the agreement.
How Would This Impact China And India?
Bad and good news. For China, it is definitely an end to its growing hegemony in the region. The Hambantota port which was leased to China on a 99-year lease after the Sri Lankan government failed to repay a loan, was seen as its fall into China’s debt trap and the beginning of a long Chinese dominance highly detrimental to the country and deepening of its debt crisis. Sri Lanka’s proximity to and key strategic location at one of the busiest shipping routes in the Indian Ocean cannot be stressed enough. It’s the reason China has moved in and has invested so highly in building a consolidated network to assist in trade and for its Belt and Road initiative for which Sri Lanka is extremely crucial. India is very well aware of the stakes. It enjoys good relations with the US. It would be highly beneficial for India to have the US enter into this mix and even out the imbalance. China’s swell of activity has not gone unnoticed especially by India, which has experienced growing discomfort at its economic rival’s increasing footprints all over its backyard.
The situation will be unfolding over the next few weeks and it will be interesting to see what kind of ripples are created in the political landscape of Sri Lanka and the opprobrium that we can count on with the two leaders of the country being at loggerheads. It will also lead to many shifts in the geoeconomic and geopolitical relations of the US, China and Sri Lanka and many other neighbouring stakeholders such as India and even Japan.