Some years ago, there was a chat program organised by then ‘IBN-Live’ news channel featuring Yogendra Yadav, then a renowned psephologist (present-day politician, ex-AAP member and founder of ‘Swaraj Abhijan’). I asked him if the Indian democracy is as mature as the western democracies. His to the point answer was “India is as mature or immature as other democracies.”
Democracy is a broad form of a political model for governing a country where people have a say. But there’s no uniform format of a democratic system; every nation has its unique form of democracy. Some have a presidential system; some are with a Parliamentary system. Even in the Parliamentary system, there are different formats according to the nations demographic and geographic requirements.
India too has a Parliamentary system which has a different set-up than any other nation. For example, India’s ‘Rajya Sabha’ is more powerful than the UK’s ‘House of Lords’. Indian Judiciary appoints its judges whereas in many western democracies judges are appointed either by parliamentarians or through a political system. Thus, every country has a unique form of democracy. That’s why I agreed with Yogendra Yadav’s answer full heartedly.
But then I felt that a country while moving ahead should also improve over its past performance. Its maturity may not be comparable with other countries’ because of its unique structure of democracy, but can always be compared with its previous competencies. My observation says that Indian democracy is becoming more matured with time. People are always the prime component of any democracy. They vote/elect their representatives to govern the country. If you study their voting pattern, you can note that people are becoming more mature and smarter with each passing election.
Presently I have noticed that people vote differently in different elections. For example, the voting behaviour of the people depends on whether they are voting for the state or the assembly elections. Similarly, their voting pattern also varies with respect to the local and urban body elections. This phenomenon is called split voting. Let’s examine some case studies to verify this claim.
For this, I have collected data of some crucial states from 2017 assembly election onwards.
Let’s first consider the 2017 assembly election in Gujarat. No doubt Gujarat is the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But Congress gave a tough fight to BJP and perhaps lost the election by a whisker. BJP got 49.1% of the total vote share while Congress had 41.4%. Let’s compare it with the 2019 general election’s vote shares. BJP got an astounding 62.21% of the total vote share whereas Congress got a meagre 32.11 %. This proves that the electorate of Gujarat voted differently in assembly elections of 2017 than it did in the general elections of 2019.
In the Punjab assembly elections of 2017, people gave Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal(SAD), BJP and AAP a vote share of 38.5%, 25.2%, 5.4%, and 23.7% respectively. In the 2019 general elections, the vote share became 40.1%, 27.45%, 9.63% and 7.38% respectively. The point to be noted is that AAP’s vote share reduced drastically whereas Congress, BJP and SAD’s vote share increased. That means people of Punjab considered AAP to be a player who is competent in the state’s polity but insignificant in the national polity. As SAD is part of NDA, thus it has a stake in the national polity.
Let’s take the example of some other states like Goa, UP, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh. The vote share of BJP during the 2017 assembly election was 32.5%, 39.7%, 46.5 and 48.8% respectively. The vote share during the 2019 general election in these states is 51.18%, 49.6%, 61.01%, and 69.11% respectively. The difference of vote share shows that people of these states had a clear intent in mind about the party they wish to see in power after the 2019 general elections. Congress is the competitor of BJP in all these states except UP. People also gave some importance to other parties in state elections, but for the general election, their choice was obvious.
Let us now consider some of the assembly elections of 2018. The crucial states are MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh. (I am skipping North East states because the region is politically dynamic hold and may not relevant to this analysis). In MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh Congress and BJP are the main rivals. The vote shares of BJP and Congress in MP during assembly elections of 2018 were 41% and 40.9% respectively whereas in 2019 general elections the vote shares were 58% and 34.50 per cent respectively. In Rajasthan, the vote shares of BJP and Congress in 2018 assembly elections were 38.8% and 39.3% respectively whereas the vote shares of both the parties in 2019 were 58.47% and 34.24%. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, the vote share of BJP and Congress in 2018 assembly elections were 33% and 43% respectively whereas the vote share in 2019 general elections were 50.7% and 40.91%.
The stark contrast of vote share between the assembly and general elections within a time frame of nearly six months proves that people of these states viewed assembly elections and general elections from different lenses. Congress won Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh in 2018 assembly elections but BJP swept the 2019 general elections.
In all the above examples people rejected regional parties or small parties (although considered necessary during state elections) while casting their votes in the general elections. Let’s now take the case of Karnataka and Telangana, where there are major regional parties. In Karnataka assembly elections of 2018 BJP, Congress and JDS got a vote share of 36.2%, 38%, and 18.3% respectively. In the general elections, both Congress and JDS allied to sweep Karnataka as their combined vote share becomes 56.3%. But the people of Karnataka rejected this poll arithmetic. The vote share of BJP, Congress, and JDS in the 2019 general election were 51.38%, 31.88%, and 9.67% respectively. Isn’t it a clear indication about who the people of Karnataka think should be their representative in the national politics, despite Congress and JDS alliance presently ruling the state?
In Telangana BJP, Congress and TRS got a vote share of 7.1%, 28.4%, and 46.9% respectively in 2018 assembly elections. In 2019 general elections the vote share of BJP, Congress, and TRS are 19.45%, 29.48%, and 41.29%. Although TRS got a higher vote share than BJP and Congress then as the national parties, both BJP and Congress got more vote share in comparison to their vote share during the state elections. TRS’ vote share reduced despite TRS leader KCR indicating that TRS would play an essential role in national politics. People of Telangana gave more importance to national parties in the general elections than in the assembly elections.
Finally, let’s take the case of Odisha where assembly and the general elections were held simultaneously. In the assembly elections, the vote share of BJD, BJP, and Congress was 44.71%, 32.50%, and 16.12% respectively whereas the Parliamentary vote share were 42.76%, 38.37%, and 13.81% respectively. This proves that many voters, while opted BJD for the state, voted BJP for the centre. This difference of vote share will be much more if individual parliamentary seats are also analysed.
A simple example is that every Parliamentary Constituency of Odisha has seven assembly constituencies. As BJP won 8 seats, ideally it should have won 56 seats; but the party won just 23 seats in the state assembly. That means in every booth, there was some amount of split voting. (I skipped Andhra Pradesh because national parties like Congress and BJP have no presence in that state. Thus the analysis of simultaneous state and Lok Sabha elections becomes irrelevant in the context of Andhra Pradesh)
In conclusion, I would say that the claims of self-proclaimed experts that Indian voters are influenced by false propaganda through social media, money or muscle power, etc, do not hold any significant ground. Indian voters judge the scenario, understand the context (whether the election is for national, state level or local level) and then decide and vote using their wisdom and logic. Nobody can question who they vote for and nobody should. But it’s also a fact that people don’t vote a single party for all types of elections. People (especially the youth) are no more interested in merely being reduced to a vote bank for a particular party or an alliance. They assert their freedom to choose and implement their Constitutional right to vote using their reasonable discretion.
There’s a proverb that says “Goats like people get a wolf-like ruler.” In a democracy, the more mature its electorates, the better are the governments. Thus, Indian democracy keeps on maturing, election after election. That’s a positive sign for the largest democracy in the entire world.