As soon as India conducted an airstrike across the international border in Pakistan’s Balakot, political analysts including some of Modi’s critics started congratulating the BJP for winning the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa said the airstrike could help BJP win over 22 seats in Karnataka.
There is little doubt that the whole episode in India-Pak tensions – the death of over 40 soldiers in Pulwama terror attack on February 14, Balakot airstrike by the IAF, Pakistani aircrafts crossing over in India and subsequent dogfight between Indian and Pakistani aircrafts that led to the capture of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman and his eventual release – will shadow the polls campaigning, given the mention of national security in almost every rally by PM himself and allegation, counter-allegation by other BJP leaders and Opposition leaders. This episode has shifted the focus of the country on Pakistan and Pak-sponsored terrorism in the run-up to 2019 general elections.
BJP has apparently fielded its leaders to gain maximum out of the recent events. While Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad lashed out at the Congress saying that the leaders of the grand old party were speaking the language of Pakistan and competing to lower down the morale of our security forces, Delhi BJP president went an extra mile and donned army uniform during a rally in the national capital. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself appears to be in no mood to leave any stone unturned to cash in on the current patriotic fervor in the country. Significantly, Modi broke his silence on the Pulwama terror attacks at a rally, assuring the audience present of a befitting reply to the neighbouring country for waging a proxy war against India.
Initially, the opposition leaders stood with the government in the aftermath of Pulwama and congratulated the Air Force for carrying out the airstrike on JeM terror camps in Balakot. Congress president Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Omar Abdullah, Akhilesh Yadav were among the prominent opposition leaders who were quick to hail our armed forces sensing the current mood of the nation. However, later on, some leaders started questioning the government on the damages occurred in the Balakot operation, with the most important among them being Digvijay Singh who termed the Pulwama killing as an accident attracting strong criticism from the ruling BJP.
To be precise, the Pulwama terror attack and events that followed have set the tone for the upcoming general polls. And in many ways, it goes in the obvious favour of PM Narendra Modi and the Bhartiya Janata Party. With the operation on JeM training camps deep inside Pakistan and successfully getting Wing Commander Abhinandan released within 60 hours from Pakistan’s custody, the BJP and Sangh Parivar have started their propaganda game of projecting Narendra Modi as the only leader who can secure borders and effectively act against terrorism, the way they presented him as the only man capable of safeguarding the interests of Hindus in the 2014 general polls.
Besides, BJP’s allies who were sending signals of a possible break up with the NDA are appearing to have changed their minds. An increasing focus on Pakistan has diverted the attention from the flak the BJP was facing on issues of unemployment, agrarian crisis, and the alleged Rafale deal.
History suggests that the BJP has taken advantage of the India-Pakistan tensions in past elections. In the 1999 general election which took place one month after the Kargil war, the Atal Bihari Vajpai-led government at the Centre reclaimed the power. Vajpai’s popularity soared by over 9 percent between 1998 and 1999 due to the Kargil war, according to a Lokniti-CSDS survey poll. People surveyed in this poll were far more satisfied with his handling of the Kargil war than his handling of economic affairs.
In the 2017 assembly elections which took place after the surgical strikes in September 2016 on terror launch pads in Pakistan in response to the Uri attack, the BJP won in four states – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, and Manipur. A Lokniti-CSDS survey shows that surgical strike was the biggest driving force behind the BJP’s win in UP and Uttarakhand.
If the present state of affairs is to be considered, Modi appears to be the clear winner. However, things may take a turn if the Opposition unitedly starts raising the real issue of farm crisis, joblessness and defense deals.