French prophet Nostradamus predicted a grim future that includes a World War III. However, unlike the previous two world wars, this one may not be fought with guns and bombs. This war, too, shall start with intrusions, yet they will come in the form of cyber-attacks and threats.
As the proliferation of technology continues and tensions amidst world powers escalate, the third world war may have already started. When I look around the world today – at Russia’s election interference, at China’s theft of corporate secrets, at the shadowy groups of anonymous hackers’ intent on (and succeeding in) electronic mayhem – I am inclined to conclude that the next World War is already underway.
New Weapons
The tanks and bombs of the last great global war have now given way to weapons of cyberwarfare, which have already damaged the foundations of Western democracy and pose fundamental risks to our economy and our way of life. Hackers are within arm’s reach of disrupting critical infrastructures, financial institutions, and even law enforcement agencies. In this world war, each battle has significance because compromising a critical network equates to winning a battle. The greatest threat however is their proximity to data that provides access. This access take them one “lock” from successfully entering spaces that can exacerbate disruptive and disabling exploits.
In a matter of moments, though, a small-but-determined nefarious agent could target the satellites that are crucial to a large society’s communications or even program a drone aircraft to deliver devastating explosive attacks. Our railways, our power plants, our water systems and even our currency all increasingly depend on vulnerable electronic networks.
The electric grids are vital to a functioning society, so safeguarding that network is a battle you most certainly do not want to lose. Even in less important critical infrastructure sectors, maintaining a strong defense to assure axillary components of transportation, communications and food safety network security is paramount.
Who is the enemy?
Part of the difficulty in defending against this new form of war lies in its asymmetric nature. Just as we have adopted strategic tactics in street fighting or Afghanistan, we must do the same when approaching cyberwarfare. The U.S is huge and technologically advanced – we’re talking answers at our fingertips within seconds or having the ability to disrupt an entire economy with the push of a button – and bears all the vulnerabilities of that complex interdependent infrastructure. Yet some of our most determined enemies, waging battle in small groups armed only with laptops, have little to lose and plenty of ways to hide. After all, it’s always the quiet little guys you must watch out for on the big bad Internet.
These anonymous warriors now stand as a bigger and a more likely threat than any large-scale, head on cyber-attackers from Russia or China. In some cases, small threat actors are sponsored by these larger countries to infiltrate our critical system and give major adversaries anonymity. Like a game of chess, their moves are calculated and strategic to manage the risks they may face in attacking us. And, although we know who is doing what to who, we can’t just drop bombs on those countries. This would lead to the physical embodiment of WWIII. So, the Internet games continue.
Defining WWIII
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has yet to define cyberwar. Why? The commitment clause in Article 5 states that an armed attack on one member is an armed attack against all NATO members. Thus, countries will come to each other’s aid when any one of them is targeted. If this is true, and we used the term “cyberwar” to describe foreign hackers gaining access into private networks, then we would be in an all out global cyber war.
Even as future attacks against our society are launched, there may never be a day when it can be said that World War II has officially begun. Because, maybe it already has? And there may be no day when we can credibly say we’ve finally defeated all our enemies because we never will. But of this I am confident: The time to fight this quiet war is now.
Author : Micheal Echols follow on Twitter and subscribe to our News letter.